NOTE: Because of an oversight on my part, the politics blog post dated January 6, 2006 was not uploaded to the Web server when I originally wrote it back then. I posted it for the first time on June 6, 2008.

January 3, 2006 [LINK]

DuPuy plays hardball vs. D.C.

In an op-ed column in today's Washington Post, MLB president Bob DuPuy explains "Why the Stadium Deal Isn't Done." Far from being an appeal to reason and compromise, in hopes of persuading one or two fence-sitting council members, it was a brass-knuckled derision of Washington area fans and the city's government. He took pains to argue that MLB had other good choices in the relocation decision last year (yeah, right), an obvious hint that relocation is still an option (well, anything's possible). He certainly has a point that the cost overruns are a reflection of the absence of accountability in the D.C. government, which exposes the hideous scam that modern stadium construction has become under the terms set by MLB: By insisting on public ownership and management of new ballparks, MLB has made cost overruns and inefficiency almost inevitable! Any business person ought to know better than having the government take charge of such a big, complex project. Why not try private enterpise? Just a thought. Of course, such concepts are foreign to privileged monopolies who are used to getting their demands met by pliable city and state governments. It is likewise true that the D.C. Council is not living up to the terms set in the agreement reached one year ago, but DuPuy is being absurdly naive on the political realities of Washington.

Indeed, the negative political atmosphere is the result of MLB's own past decisions on relocating the former Montreal Expos. In the July 15, 2003 Washington Post, DuPuy was quoted as saying the MLB decision would come "when the moons and the sun and the stars and the dollars are aligned correctly. We'll get there." Well, two can play that stalling game. Maybe that's how long he'll have to wait until the D.C. Council passes a satisfactory stadium financing bill! The sad truth is, Mr. DuPuy, Selig, and the rest of the bigwigs at MLB took the risk of waiting too long before committing to relocation, and now they -- and all baseball fans -- are paying the price.

Animal personality quiz

Thanks to Phil Faranda (a "Bear"), I've learned that I have the personality of

What Is Your Animal Personality?
brought to you by Quizilla

I would be surprised if most people found me to be "cynical," though I must admit that more than one student evaluation I've had in the past echoes that last sentence. "He's not that bad, once you get to know him." Really!

I wonder how personality type correlates with peculiar habits or theological beliefs?

January 3, 2006 [LINK]

Abramoff cops blea bargain

Lobbyist Jack Abramoff has pleaded guilty to charges of tax evasion, and will cooperate with Federal prosecutors by testifying against others. He and partner Michael Scanlon arranged a kickback scheme by which the clients of their public relations firm were defrauded. Abramoff admitted that money did not go to certain charities as had been intended, but rather paid for overseas junkets and other perks. Abramoff is known for his close ties to former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Grover Norquist (head of Americans for Tax Reform), and Ralph Reed (former Christian Coalition leader). See CNN.com.

Since such plea bargains almost always involve the pursuit of "higher-up" individuals, this implies that members of Congress or the Bush administration are being targeted. Saturday's Washington Post had a background article by R. Jeffrey Smith, detailing the complex financial Web between various congressmen and Russian oil businessmen, Indian tribes, and other special interests, with Abramoff serving as the intermediary. The name of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay figures prominently in this scheme. Hang on, folks, this promises to be a bumpy, hair-raising ride!

Happy Newt Year?

While many folks in the Republican Party have been making excuses for Tom DeLay, Bill Frist, and Karl Rove, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains focused on radical reform, in the Party of Lincoln, as well as in the nation as a whole. I don't necessarily agree with all of his positions, but he is virtually alone in the Republican Party these days in seeing the Big Picture, and thinking in strategic policy terms, rather than in tactical terms of how to win the next election. He was interviewed on C-SPAN 2 this morning, will be addressing the Conservative Political Action Committee meeting next week. See www.newt.org.

Phony civil libertarians

(UPDATE) Dinocrat makes a good point in response to those who are in an uproar over the surveillance of international communication: "the next time your friends start in with the Ben Franklin quote and their airy-fairy theoretical concerns about the loss of liberty, light a cigarette and see what happens." (via Phil Faranda)

January 4, 2006 [LINK]

MLB moves toward arbitration

As expected, Major League Baseball followed through with their threat to hold the D.C. government accountable for failing to pass a stadium financing package by the end of the year. This begins a 15-day "countdown" period for the parties to mediate the dispute on their own, after which the matter goes to binding arbitration. In that event, it might take six months or more before a final settlement is reached. D.C. Council chairwoman Linda Cropp and D.C. Sports and Entertainment Commission chairman Mark Tuohey both said they think the dispute can be resolved before it gets to that point, however. An outspoken stadium critic on the D.C. Council, Adrian Fenty, said it's just a matter of MLB ponying up more cash, but he did not say how much. Accountants in City Hall are no doubt concocting brilliant schemes to get over the financial hurdle; such proposals include selling land near the proposed stadium to developers at a premium, and having the upgrades to the Navy Yard Metrorail station be paid by the WMATA's general fund. See Washington Post. MLB President Bob DuPuy's op-ed piece yesterday left little doubt that the MLB owners have dug in their heels, refusing to concede anything more, and a fair-minded person must admit that they do have strong arguments on their side. See MLB.com. After all, a deal's a deal. I wouldn't want to be in the position of having to negotiate with the D.C. government, either.

Because of the legal fees involved, I assume this action means that MLB's compromise offer of $20 million toward stadium construction, plus a letter of credit in case of major adverse contingencies, is off the table for now. If they are smart, they will eventually make a bottom-line offer to increase that sum to $30 or $40 million, offset by suitable token concessions by D.C. Ironically, this action will cause further delays in the process of getting the new stadium built, which was supposed to be done in time for the 2008 season. My previous estimate of of three-year expected lifespan for RFK Stadium therefore stands, but it may be even longer than that... I doubt that it raises the likelihood of the Nationals being relocated above the ten percent I have estimated; given the amount of money both sides would stand to lose in such an apocalyptic scenario, even that may be too high.

Lest my recent criticisms of MLB be construed as support for the D.C. Council's dilly-dallying, let me say that it is time for certain attention-grabbing Council members to stop their vain gestures of defiance and cut a reasonable deal. Even though he wore a Nationals hat to a recent meeting, the aging Marion Barry, who takes pride in being known as a friend of hoodlums in spite of being robbed this week, simply cannot be counted on. In contrast, one of the younger, up-and-coming members (Adrian Fenty? Kwame Brown?) could gain a lot of career-boosting prestige by acting like a responsible statesman in this moment of crisis. See the table of D.C. council member votes.

Prolonging RFK's lifetime

The Beltway Boys adds another voice to the "keep RFK" movement, urging that the outfield seating sections (upper deck only) be removed, so that the stadium would be open, much like what they did at Cinergy Field in Cincinnati during its final two years. I added this comment:

I suggested ripping out the upper deck outfield seats at RFK to an architect who was bidding on the renovation project in late 2004. (I don't know if his firm won.) He replied that such a major change was way beyond what was being considered for the short term, but I agree it's an option that should not be dismissed. A view toward the Anacostia River might just have a breathtaking effect, especially if they go ahead with long-term plans to make that area into a nature/recreation area. I also suggested to Tom Boswell in an Wash. Post online chat that RFK be given a few extra years of baseball life, and he seemed to agree with that. You never know...

Football/baseball stadiums

In keeping with the season (Rose Bowl kickoff time!), and as part of my never-ending endeavor to enhance the functionality of this Web site, making repeat visits here worth your while, the Football use page now includes a scrolling menu that allows you to instantly compare the 27 or so stadiums for which I have completed football version diagrams. It is located near the bottom of that page. In addition, the main table now indicates the years when the Super Bowl and various college bowl games were played in the respective stadiums. Speaking of football, I must say that this past weekend was certainly a good one for football fans in Virginia and the Washington area. The Redskins beat the Eagles, thereby making it to the playoffs for the first time in six years, while the U.Va. Cavaliers and the Virginia Tech Hokies won their respective bowl games. All three games were exciting and entertaining. And as for football stadiums in the Old Dominion, I saw the Rolling Stones in concert at Scott Stadium in October, and drove past Lane Stadium in Blacksburg last week.

Construction photos

Some photos of construction at the New Busch Stadium can be seen at thebirdwatch.com and some of Wrigley Field can be seen at bleedcubbieblue.com. (via David Pinto)

January 4, 2006 [LINK]

Venezuela pledges aid to Bolivia

Even before President-elect Evo Morales has been inaugurated, he has reached an agreement with Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez by which Venezuela will transfer cash and petroleum fuel for the benefit of poor Bolivians. Morales' first stop on his world tour was Cuba, and Chavez called the three leftist leaders "an axis of good." See CNN.com. Morales is now in Spain, visiting Prime Minister Zapatero, a Socialist who sympathizes with Morales' radical reform agenda. See BBC.

Zapatistas adopt peaceful means

Zapatista rebel leader Marcos, who had been a fugitive from the law for years, is now particpating in open politics. He received a warm welcome during a "campaign stop" in Palenque, near one of Mexico's finest Mayan ruins. See Miami Herald (collaboration with El Universal, in English). Although this is a clear step toward more peaceful style of politics, it also represents the underlying tide of left-wing populist politics that is affecting several countries in South America. It remains to be seen whether the leftist leaders are fully committed to abiding by democratic, constitutional norms. Meanwhile, drug-related violence continues in Nuevo Laredo and other towns along the Rio Grande.

Peru seeks Fujimori's extradition

The request by the Peruvian government that Chile hand over former President Alberto Fujimori to stand trial in Peru, was widely anticipated, really just a formality. See CNN.com. It will be interesting to see if Chile's outgoing leftist government of Ricardo Lagos takes this opportunity to build relations with Peru, which have deteriorated in recent months. He and his likely successor, Michelle Bachelet, have no love lost for Fujimori, a right-wing authoritarian who is often compared to Pinochet.

Brazil prison riot

About 200 visitors to a prison in the Brazilian state of Rondonia, located on the edge of the Amazon jungle, were freed after spending five days as hostages of inmates last week. The riot was to back up the prisoners' demands that their leader, Ednildo Paula Souza, be returned to the Urso Branco (White Bear) penitentiary, which is reputedly among the most violent of Brazil's prisons. He had escaped from that prison two weeks earlier, was caught, and then transfered to a different prison. See CNN.com.

Haiti still turbulent

Two officials of the Organization of American States who had been kidnapped in Haiti were freed, along with the wife of one of them. For the third or fourth time, the elections there have been postponed because the security situation is still so poor that it is impossible to distribute ballots to all polling places on time. No word on when the new election day will be. See BBC.

January 4, 2006 [LINK]

Deepest agony in West Virginia

It is one thing to lose a dear family member, but quite anothing thing to lose one in a tragic accident. Perhaps the worst thing of all is when it is learned that a loved one has perished after having been told that he or she had been saved. I happened to be up late last night, and was at first delighted to see news reports around midnight that twelve of the miners trapped in a West Virginia coal mine were still alive. The scenes of joyful family members hugging each other over the apparent miraculous rescue seemed almost too good too be true, ... and indeed it was. About three hours later came the awful truth: Only one of the thirteen trapped miners was found alive, and he remains in critical condition, probably suffering from carbon monoxide poisoning. Could any poet or clergyman come up with the right words to console the crestfallen, bitter emptiness that those family members are going through? As we extend our heartfelt sympathy to the victims' families, let us also pray that this terrible twist of events does not undermine those hard-working, long-suffering folks' faith in God. As yet no one seems to know how the false report originated, and one can only feel pity for the unfortunate soul who conveyed the mistaken impression.

January 4, 2006 [LINK]

Former News Leader publisher sets record straight

An op-ed piece in today's Staunton News Leader by Evarts W. Opie, Jr., former publisher of the local newspaper, laments the "gratuitous personal attack" on then-commissioner of revenue Ray Ergenbright that appeared in an editorial on December 16. He lays out the facts about the difficult transition to the new tax revenue software system and concludes, "Instead of throwing brickbats at the outgoing commissioner we should be thanking him for 11 years of good and faithful service."

It was gratifying to read such a strong condemnation of the unfair campaign against Ergenbright (and former Treasurer Elnora Hazlett) by a person who used to run the newspaper, before it was bought out by the Gannett Corporation several years ago. Unfortunately, this is one of those situations where the phrase "better late than never" does not apply. In my mind, the fact that the voters of Staunton were deprived of the full story behind the property tax software controversy when they went into the polling booths on November 8 was an outright travesty. As I noted on October 20, I remain mystified by the motivations behind the editorial bias that seems to have affected the News Leader's coverage of local news. Small town intrigues...

Marion Barry robbed

Former mayor Marion Barry was robbed at gunpoint in his own kitchen by two youths who had been helping him to bring groceries inside yesterday. This quote from the roguish Barry is a perfect illustration of the prevailing mindset in Washington, making lame excuses for criminal behavior.

There is a sort of an unwritten code in Washington, among the underworld and the hustlers and these other guys, that I am their friend. ... I don't advocate what they do. I advocate conditions to change what they do. I was a little hurt that this betrayal did happen. [SOURCE: Washington Post; apologies for the prior omission]

Barry also used the opportunity to call for stricter gun control laws, notwithstanding the fact that the District already has one of the toughest (and largely futile) anti-gun laws in the country. This incident, and Barry's reaction to it, further undermines the city's image just as the confrontation over stadium financing between the city government and Major League Baseball has escalated, a time when prestige matters the most.

January 5, 2006 [LINK]

Dirty money give-backs

In the wake of the guilty pleas by Jack Abramoff, President Bush will donate to charity $6,000 in campaign funds that were directly given to him by Abramoff. The lobbyist raised a total of $100,000 for the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, however, and the Public Citizen group called Bush's action insufficient. Although Republicans are clearly in the most trouble over the Abramoff affair, some Democrats such as Dick Durbin and Harry Reid may be implicated in it as well. See Washington Post. Since this scandal has been brewing since at least last summer, it would have looked better if this gesture had been made several months ago.

In Virginia, Rep. Eric Cantor, a 42-year young Republican from Richmond who has risen quickly to the post of Chief Deputy Majority Whip, declared that he will give away $10,000 of Abramoff's money. Cantor, along with Dennis Hastert, Tom DeLay, and Roy Blunt -- the four leaders of the majority caucus in the House -- signed a letter that urged Secretary of Interior Gale Norton on June 10, 2003 to turn down a request for off-reservation gambling establishments by certain Indian tribes, apparently at the behest of Jack Abramoff. The other primary target of the corruption inquiry is Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio. See Judicial Watch.

UPDATE: The Associated Press has a long list of politicians who have given back campaign donations from Jack Abramoff or his associates in recent months. First place "honors" go to Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT), who donated about $150,000. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) donated $2,000 of campaign funds that came from Abramoff, about the average amount that most senators and representatives received.

Swann for Governor

On the bright side for the GOP, former Pittsburgh Steelers running back Lynn Swann announced he is running for Governor of Pennsylvania this year as a Republican. See AP.com.

January 6, 2006 [LINK]

Arbtitration process begins

Major League Baseball formally asked the American Arbitration Association to resolve the stadium funding dispute with the District of Columbia. Mayor Williams says that constructive discussions are going forward, and since the general framework of the agreement has already been agreed to, there is really no need for arbitration. (Now there's an eternal optimist!) The D.C. Council is beginning to contemplate how much an adverse ruling by a three-person panel might cost the District, if it goest that far. See Washington Post.

Nats news bits

Some of the major Washington-area radio stations will change frequency in the near future, most notably news-talk WTOP, which will go from AM 1500 to FM 105.1. The Washington Post will launch its own radio station on AM 1500 in March, and they just signed a contract to broadcast all Washington Nationals games this year.

Utility infielder Jamey Carroll has signed a one-year contract with the Nats, thereby avoiding arbitration. He was reliable, adding much-needed depth to the team in the 2005 season.

Memorabilia queries

Has anyone ever heard of an early 20th Century ballpark called "Tiger Oval"? If so please let me know via e-mail. I occasionally receive queries from folks who have in their possession some piece of baseball memorabilia, such as an old stadium seat or souvenir. I have seen catalogs of sports memorabilia published by Topps, among others, but I don't know much about that field. If anyone who visit this Web site does have such knowledge, please let me know so that I can forward such inquiries to the right people. Thank you!

January 6, 2006 [LINK]

Holiday cactus

In the old days, this plant used to be called a "Christmas cactus," but we don't want to offend anyone. Actually, it bloomed a week late, so perhaps it should be called a "New Year's cactus."

Roll mouse over the image to see a close up (note the magenta tip of the stamen), and click on it to revert.

January 6, 2006 [LINK]

Even worse carnage in Iraq

Over 180 people have been killed by suicide bombs in central Iraq in the past few days, a sudden and terrible escalation of violence. In Muqdadiyah, near the border with Iran, at least 42 mourners at a funeral were killed. In Ramadi, at least 80 Sunni Muslims at a police recruitment center were killed by two suicide bombers in rapid succession. In Karbala, 54 Shiite Muslims were killed outside the Imam Hussein mosque. To some extent, this represents outrage felt by Sunni Arabs at having lost the December 15 elections; many of them persist in the delusion fostered by Saddam Hussein that they are really the majority in Iraq. By all appearances, the desperate attempt to derail the ongoing transition by triggering a civil war is backfiring, as the Sunnis realize that they would certainly lose in such a bloodbath. More and more Sunnis are turning against the Al Qaeda-affiliated Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which may mean the end of the insurgents' dreams of terrorizing U.S. forces out of Iraq. Today's Washington Post and strategypage.com both describe the collapse in political support for the terrorists among all factions in Iraq. What it really signifies is the breakdown in the tacit alliance between the religiously-motivated Al Qaeda faction and the ethnic Sunni-based faction composed of Baath regime remanents. This "silver lining" around the dark cloud of horrific mass death has truly decisive implications for achieving a meaningful victory over the Islamofascist menace: If they can't win in Iraq, they can't win anywhere. One insurgent leader bragged that President Bush's plan to reduce U.S. force levels is proof that their side is winning, but what else would you expect the losers to say? At any rate, one should refrain from jumping to conclusions about the motives behind such attacks. Terrorism is inherently murky, and often irrational. Paying close attention to the rhetoric of terrorists is a fool's errand.

Blankley on national unity

The situation is not quite so auspicious on the home front, however. Tony Blankley, former speechwriter for Newt Gingrich, worries about the absence of national unity in Real Clear Politics. He points out that Islamofascists draw courage from partisan divisiveness in the United States, and draws a link between the weak commitment to the national good and the "me first" attitude that is behind recent corruption scandals and pork barrel excesses committed by the Republican-led Congress. It is a provocative and rather compelling point to consider. Interestingly, he lays some of the blame on President Bush, which I think is appropriate, though Paul Mirengoff at Power Line Blog thinks otherwise.

The human toll

Fifty nine American soldiers lost their lives in Iraq last month, bringing the total number of U.S. combat fatalities there to 2,163. Over the past twelve months, 833 American service men and women were killed in action, compared to 848 in 2004. May all Americans come to understand and appreciate the cause for which our braves soldiers sacrificed their lives.

January 6, 2006 [LINK]

"Blue goose" on Bell's Lane

I took a drive out to Bell's Lane yesterday afternoon, and saw a dozen or so American coots and a few Ruddy ducks on the big pond, but nothing else in that particular area. On one of the hill slopes along the upland stretch of that road further north, however, I saw several hundred Canada geese. I also noticed one peculiar white-headed goose with a black neck, thin black line reaching to the crown, dark gray back, and white streaks in the hind quarters. After consulting my field guides, I am almost certain that it was a Snow goose with "dark phase" plumage, a.k.a. "Blue goose," which was formerly considered a separate species. (Just as with the inaptly-named Great "blue" heron, there is hardly any bluish hue.) Snow geese are rare in this area; the "normal" ones are white. After checking my records, I realized that I had never seen a Snow goose before, so that makes the first life bird for me in the new year!

UPDATE: I returned late this afternoon, but the geese were much further from the road, and I didn't see the "Blue goose." I did see two Red-tailed hawks, however, one of which was startled by the approach of my car and dropped his prey (a Gray squirrel) as it flew away.

February 7, 2006 [LINK]

D.C. Council prepares to vote

As of 4:00 this afternoon, still no word on a vote by the D.C. Council. Today's Washington Post has much more on the last-minute negotiations aimed at securing a majority "yes" vote on the stadium finance bill. The fact that everyone involved wants to portray this issue in all-or-nothing terms, rather than take my suggestion or proceeding incrementally and building as much of the new stadium as can be done with the budgeted funds, suggests that all this is mostly for the sake of posturing. Too much money is at stake for the whole thing to collapse. According to WTOP Radio (now at 103.5 FM, rather than 1500 AM), however:

[I]f the District cannot pass the lease, WTOP has learned that Virginia is open to talks with Major League Baseball about pursuing the Nationals in Northern Virginia.
...
Meanwhile, D.C. Mayor Tony Williams is furious with the council for using a consultant with ties to the Virginia Baseball Stadium Authority.

Now, wouldn't that be something? I give that scenario a one percent chance, optimistically. The Baseball in D.C. page has been reformatted and updated with recent news items.

UPDATE: As of 5:00 PM, WTOP reports that Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine has expressed willingness to push for a new baseball stadium in Northern Virginia, in case the D.C. situation disintegrates. This eagerness stands in contrast to the prudent, arms-length attitude of his predecessor, Mark Warner. As a Virginian, I always preferred a new ballpark in Arlington (NOT Texas!) as the ideal outcome, and I remain deeply skeptical about the Dulles alternative stadium site. I also think it's a little unseemly for neighboring jurisdictions to be playing against one another in a delicate situation such as this. The D.C. Council is scheduled to vote up or down on the matter this evening. UP! UP! UP!

D.C. Council votes NO!

FURTHER UPDATE: As of 9:00 PM, WTOP reports that the D.C. Council voted 8 to 5 against Mrs. Cropp's proposed emergency stadium finance bill, which may just deal a fatal blow to the future of baseball in Washington. Or maybe not. Some council members seem to think that Major League Baseball will recognize that they have no better alernative than to make even bigger concessions and keep the Nationals in Washington. Perhaps, but that is taking an enormous risk. I would expect Bud Selig to issue an immediate statement condemning the D.C. Council vote, beginning steps to relocate the Nationals elsewhere (possibly even this season*), and I would have to support him. How in the world can anyone make a long-term commercial agreement with a government that reneges so capriciously on its existing solemn commitments? I have criticized MLB's heavy-handed tactics many times in the past, and there is no doubt that both sides share some of the blame for this disgraceful turn of events, but from what I can tell, the action by the D.C. Council this evening seems completely unjustifiable. It reeks of short-sighted, self-destructive, crowd-pleasing spite. I've been prepared for a lot of bluffing and brinksmanship by both sides, but this outcome is astonishing even to me. It will be interesting to hear what the "no"-voting council members have to say...

I have raised the probability of the Nats being relocated from 10 percent to 20 percent; there is an additional 10 percent probability of relocation from D.C. to Northern Virginia.

Twins escape lease obligation

A Hennepin County judge has ruled that the Minnesota Twins have no legal obligation under the 1998 use agreement (which expired in 2003) to stay in the Metrodome after the 2006 season is over. According to ESPN, this "could increase pressure on lawmakers to approve financing for a new ballpark." Given the increasingly hostile political climate to subsidizing fatcats via stadium financing bills, however, the Twins may have less leverage in this matter than they think. Where else are they going to go? Besides, they have a long, established franchise history in their home city (metropolitan area), unlike the "at-risk" franchises in Florida. (link via David Pinto)

February 7, 2006 [LINK]

Muslims on (belated) rampage

What can possibly explain the fact that the sudden outburst of violent riots by Muslims around the world is taking place several months after the offending cartoons were published in a Danish newspaper? An orchestrated campaign by Islamofascists in Syria, that's what. The Baathist dictatorship of Bashar Assad in Damascus is under increasing pressure to reform itself, and decided to contrive the outrage among Muslims to reassert its domestic authority. This "rent-a-mob" tactic is also aimed at rekindling ethnic tension in Lebanon as a way to regain a foothold for Syria, from whence they were forced to retreat almost a year ago. For a "rogue regime" that has long been a sponsor of terrorism, such practices are just par for the course. The violence has spread to various European countries, Indonesia, and now to Afghanistan. See Washington Post. Latent anti-American sentiment is being blamed, which shows how absurd and delusional much of the Muslim world is today; the United States had nothing to do with those cartoons! This latest incident demonstrates, once again, the futility of trying to appease Islamic extremism and the various nationalistic movements that fall under its umbrella. Victor Davis Hanson (via Instapundit) asks whether the escalating offensive by Muslim fanatics may elicit a "European Awakening Against Islamic Fascism." Each in their own way, the governments of Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Denmark are showing increasing backbone in response to Islamic bullying, almost making the Bush administration look tame by comparison.

UPDATE: As usual, Belmont Club has much more in-depth coverage of this latest flare-up in the "clash of civilizations," including the destruction of the Danish Embassy in Damascus by government mobs, and makes an excellent suggestion: Show solidarity with Denmark! Pay a visit to the Danish Embassy in Washington, which issued a press release on this incident yesterday:

Minister for Foreign Affairs Per Stig Møller vehemently condemns the attack and he states: "Syria has failed its obligations, and it is utterly unacceptable that the Embassy was not protected by the Syrians. I reserve the right to take all steps vis-à-vis the Syrian Government."

In the old days, what happened in Damascus would be a cause for war.

McCain rebukes Obama

Sen. Barack Obama, the young Illinois moderate who is widely considered to be the Democrats' "Great Multicultural Hope" for some future presidential race, has run afoul of Sen. John McCain. Obama had made a personal pledge to cooperate with McCain in a bipartisan push for lobbying reform legislation, and then backed out at the behest of his party leaders, leaving McCain in the lurch. In response, McCain wrote an unusually blunt and sarcastic letter (link via Chad Dotson) expressing regret that Obama reneged on his commitment. Whenever a moderate like McCain gets riled up, you know there must be a very good reason for it. Whenever some fresh new face like Obama's arrives on the national stage, I usually reserve judgment while everyone else fawns in premature adulation. I think my initial hesitation about Obama's leadership credentials has been borne out by events.

Obama has responded, professing to have no idea at what prompted McCain's rebuke. He says that he thought the "Honest Leadership Act" introduced by Minority Leader Harry Reid "should be the basis for a bipartisan solution." Yeah, right. (link via Instapundit)

January 7, 2006 [LINK]

Catbird is still here

I took a walk behind the Staunton-Augusta Rescue Squad for the first time this year this afternoon, in hopes of spotting the Gray catbird (see PHOTO taken Dec. 6) that has been stubbornly lingering in these northerly latitudes. I saw several Eastern towhees, White-throated sparrows, Blue jays, House finches, and Goldfinches, plus a Downy woodpecker. After a half hour or so, I gave up turned back. Just in time, I heard the familiar "mew" call, leaving no doubt that the catbird was still there. I caught a brief glimpse of it in the bushes, and then went home satisfied. Will it stay here for the entire winter??

January 8, 2006 [LINK]

Amaryllis flower

This stunning scarlet Amaryllis flower grew from a bulb that Jacqueline planted just before Christmas. Now that's fast! The second flower in back bloomed first, about four days ago. It sure is nice that indoor flowering plants brighten up our days and fight "Seasonal Affective Disorder" during these depressing months of scant sunlight.

For the marine life lover in you

The renowned Monterey Bay Aquarium (which I visited in 1987; link via Connie) has a "Seafood Watch" program to encourage healthy living and environmentally conscious shopping. It warns in particular against "farm-raised" shrimp and salmon. The coastal "farms" on which shrimp are raised often destroy precious mangrove trees, and salmon that are raised in extremely crowded "net pens" pollute the water with their feces. In contrast, farm-raised oysters, clams, mussels, tilapia, catfish, and trout are much better for the environment. Most Americans have become aware that improper fishing techniques kill many dolphins, which is why most food manufacturers agreed to market only "dolphin-safe" tuna. During and after the trip Jacqueline and I made to Costa Rica last February, I learned a lot about sea turtles, which often get caught in nets. See my April 14, 2005 post.

More generally, this is a classic case where wise tax policy could promote environmental goals even if many consumers remain apathetic about nature. Instead of hopelessly complex and often unenforceable pollution standards, there should be a uniform Federal gross receipts tax on all business establishments in rough proportion to the pollution that they create. The problem with implementing this, of course, is that it would annoy bargain-conscious American shoppers, who would rather not be burdened with the responsibility for helping the environment. "That's someone else's job -- like the government, or big corporations."

January 8, 2006 [LINK] *

Divisional rotation

Soldiers of the U.S. 4th Infantry Division, based at Fort Hood, Texas, have begun arriving in Kuwait, where they are getting desert combat training in preparation for deployment to Iraq. See the 4th ID Web site. It will replace the 3rd Infantry Division, which is completing a one-year rotation in the zone around Baghdad. Some may recall that the 4th ID was sent to Turkey in March 2003, as part of a plan to invade Iraq from the north, which probably would have won the war more quickly, and possibly have prevented the escape of Saddam Hussein and other top Baathist leaders. After going back and forth, Turkey finally decided it didn't want to be part of the war, so the 4th ID was rerouted through the Persian Gulf, and did not arrive until after Iraq was liberated. When it returns to the U.S.A. at the end of the year, it will take up residence at its new/old home base in Fort Carson, Colorado, where it had been based from 1970 to 1995.

Divisional modularization

One year ago, the 4th Infantry Division became "modularized," meaning that it now has four (rather than three) combat brigades, each of which can operate independently if needed. To accomplish this transformation, divisional "assets" (i.e., specialized logistical, engineering, and medical units, among others) are apportioned to the separate brigades. This is part of the Army's long-term restructuring program which is aimed at greater flexibility in fighting low-intensity irregular wars, such as Iraq. Brigades (usually 4,000 - 5,000 troops) will gradually replace divisions (usually 14,000 - 20,000 troops) as the organizational level at which combat deployments are typically carried out. See DoD.gov.

[* Date and link corrected.]

January 8, 2006 [LINK]

ABC field trip on Bell's Lane

This afternoon I joined an Augusta Bird Club field trip led by Allen Larner on Bell's Lane. Somehow he arranged to have three Short-eared owls * and two Northern harriers (one adult male, one female or immature) show up right on cue for the 12-person "audience." One of the owls briefly chased a harrier, which was entertaining. Too bad they didn't come closer. Allen pointed out to us a distant flock of Horned larks *, which I would not have recognized otherwise. Across the field several hundred Canada geese were grazing, as well as two adult Snow geese (white, of course) and one juvenile (which is pale gray, discernible on the left in the adjacent photo). I also spotted the "dark phase" or "Blue-morph" Snow goose which I had seen on Thursday, but it was too far to get a decent photo. I didn't stay for the last part of the trip, but I did catch a glimpse of a Red-tailed hawk perched in a tree on the way home.

(* = first of the season for me)

January 10, 2006 [LINK]

Fenway Park update

The Fenway Park page, sponsored by Sean Holland, has been revised with new diagrams that conform to the new standard. Among the minor corrections: the angles of the grandstands have been adjusted slightly, and right field bleachers are about 20 feet deeper than I had previously estimated. Because of all the quirky angles and adjustments that were made over the years, that was a major hurdle. Diagram revisions for the rest of the "Classic Era" ballparks should go more smoothly.

Marlins look for new home

The Florida Marlins are making serious approaches to other cities to see if any are willing to pay for a new stadium, since Miami and the state of Florida are reluctant to contribute as much as is needed. Marlins President David Samson and other staff from the Marlins' front office visited San Antonio a month ago, and are now visiting Portland, meeting with Mayor Tom Potter and various baseball proponents. Portland officials have dusted off the proposal that used to try to lure the Montreal Expos to their fair city in 2004. As reported by oregonlive.com) (link via David Pinto),

Outlined in those [presentation] materials is a finance plan that has a much greater gap than the Marlins face in Florida but one that proponents hope will serve as a starting point for serious negotiations down the road, with the Marlins, the Oakland Athletics or some other franchise.

In 2003, the Oregon Legislature passed a bill that would secure as much as $150 million in income taxes from baseball teams to go to stadium construction. PGE Park, home of the Triple A Portland Beavers, has 38 suites and a seating capacity of 19,566 that could be increased to around 25,000.

Although six sites for a permanent stadium technically are under consideration, two are clear front-runners: the Central Post Office in the Pearl District and the Blanchard Property near the Rose Quarter.

Cooperstown calls Sutter

Former relief pitcher Bruce Sutter was the only player elected as the Hall of Fame this year, just barely receiving enough votes from the baseball writers. He is the first pitcher ever so honored never to have started a game in his career. It has not yet been decided whether he will wear a Cardinals, Cubs, or Braves uniform when he is inducted next summer. He ranks number 19 on the all-time list of most saves, but ten of those pitchers went ahead of him in the last seven years. See MLB.com. Some people might question his selection, since he was exclusively a relief pitcher. This reminds me of the situation with Edgar Martinez, who was a designated hitter for almost his entire career, and therefore, in the minds of traditionalists, not a "complete" ball player. Well, baseball keeps changing, like it or not, and increased specialization is part of that.

New stadium drawings blog

Take a look at stadiumdrawings.blogspot.com, by Terry Schulz. He has made some superb renderings of proposed renovations to various stadiums, such as the Rose Bowl, and some original designs for the Washington Nationals and other teams. Well done!

January 11, 2006 [LINK]

Shower with George

"Curious George" flew into our bathroom and perched on the shower curtain rod this morning. To my surprise, he stayed there while I showered!

January 11, 2006 [LINK]

Fujimori candidacy is rejected

The national elections board in Peru rejected the bid by Alberto Fujimori to run for president this year. Martha Chavez, one of Fujimori's closest political allies during the 1990s, is leading the effort on behalf of [the controversial former president, who was recently arrested in Chile, and who had lived in exile in Japan since he resigned in October 2000.] See Washington Post. In the unlikely event that Fujimori is allowed to run, it might take votes away from front-runner Lourdes [Flores Nano of the conservative Popular Christian Party], which would increase the likelihood that the populist Ollanta Humala might win. He is a populist former Army officer of Indian descent who led a mutiny last year, and whose brother led a coup attempt a few years ago.

U.S.-Mexico border tensions

Violence in Mexico is spilling across the border, as U.S. border patrol agents based in Brownsville, Texas came under fire twice in the past week. The lower Rio Grande valley happens to be premier bird-watching territory, where many tropical species abound. Could this rash of narcoterrorism escalate to the point where the U.S. government is forced to consider unilateral action, as when General Pershing led an expedition against Pancho Villa in 1916? No responsible policy maker in Washington would even dare acknowledge such a possibility, which is admittedly low, but the security situation is likely to deteriorate until the two countries engage in a frank dialogue aimed at addressing problems of mutual interest. See CNN.com.

No elections in Haiti

Still no word on when the elections will be held. Yesterday a general strike was held to protest violence perpetrated by warlords and their gangs who are jockeying for position. A Brazilian officer in command of peacekeeping forces recently committed suicide, which does not bode well for pacification. See cnn.com.

Situation map update

The Latin America Current overview page has been updated.

January 11, 2006 [LINK]

Alito hearings get under way

The enormous tension and hype surrounding the Samuel Alito confirmation hearings made the actual event quite anti-climactic, almost farcical. Democrats made their predictable pompous speeches about the importance of judicial precedent (stare decisis) and the invidual right to privacy; to his credit, Alito acknowledged that such a right exists. Unlike her colleagues, Sen. Diane Feinstein actually asked questions, and listened. For their part, the Republicans mostly lobbed easy questions and made gestures of fawning admiration. I was disappointed in Sen. Lindsey Graham, known as an independent-minded conservative, for his lame "wouldn't you agree?" lectures about the rights of prisoners of war, or the lack thereof. What is the point of making everyone wait through that? Almost everyone has made their position known, and few if any senators' votes will be swayed, whatever Alito says to the Judiciary Committee.

Alito may not be as perfectly poised as John Roberts, but I was impressed by him nonetheless. He did slightly better than Roberts in terms of answering questions directly. Regarding the opinion he wrote in 1985 -- that "the Constitution does not protect a right to an abortion" -- I didn't like his excuse that that "was as a line attorney in the Department of Justice in the Reagan administration." (see the Washington Post) He did say he would appraoch any case that came before him with an "open mind," which is all anyone can ask. Unless someone can find evidence that he has gone back on his word on important matters in the past, there is no reason to doubt him. He handled the grilling well, and demonstrated that he has the mind and temperment to serve as a judge on the highest court.

All indications are that the Democrats were prepared for an all-out attack. On NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday, Tim Russert really put Sen. Chuck Schumer on the spot. Since the Republican minority went along with the nominations of avowed liberals Ruth Bader Ginsberg and Stephen Breyer when they were nominated by Bill Clinton early in his term, and since the standing committee of the American Bar Association rated Alito "'Well Qualified' by unanimous vote" (with one recusal; that is the highest possible rating), why not let the majority have its way with Alito? Schumer responded with a forced grin, and he must have been in agony. He knew he was in the wrong, but he had to stick to the party line. The Republicans have been upbraided for all sorts of bad things lately, but this was one of those times that reminds me why I'm glad I'm no longer sympathetic to the Democrats.

So, will the Democrats really invoke the "extraordinary circumstances" criterion to justify a filibuster on Alito? Frankly, I find that hard to believe, but it cannot be ruled out entirely. Anyone who truly believes that Alito is "extreme" or "outside the mainstream," as Senators Durbin and Schumer keep saying, is just plain nuts.

The Supreme Court table has been updated.

Note on Roe v. Wade

It's too bad more Democrats can't make the distinction between having an opinion on the issue of abortion, versus having an opinion on the constitutional propriety of the Roe v. Wade decision. Stretching the implied constitutional right to privacy into the right to a medical procedure to which many people vehemently object shows scant regard for the actual words of the Constitution. If interpretations can be made so loosely by one court, then they could be made just as loosely by a different court in the future, in a way that might not be nearly as favorable. As classical liberals (as opposed to modern liberals) know, the Constitution protects us all from the abuse of power by government officials, and Roe v. Wade was a classic abuse of power. What goes around comes around.

Virginia Cost Cutting blog

Delegate Chris Saxman, who represents the 20th District in the House of Delegates, has begun a new blog to keep constituents informed about ongoing progress in his efforts to trim fat in the state budget and to put the brakes on those who want to spend the burgeoning (and unnecessary) surplus before taxpayers in the Old Dominion figure out what is going on. See Virginia Cost Cutting.

January 12, 2006 [LINK]

Cropp offers stadium compromise

D.C. Council chairwoman Linda Cropp, who has been playing a back seat role in recent months, has put forward a stadium finance compromise offer that she says would gain majority support. It involves adhering to the original total cost cap of $535 million (plus $54 million in bond financing fees), stipulating that MLB sell the Nationals franchise to a local investor, and allotting a certain number of tickets to disadvantaged youth. Council members Vincent Gray and Kwame Brown would consider supporting the deal if those terms are included. The District is also trying to get the Federal government pay for upgrading the Navy Yard Metro station. See Washington Post. Perhaps that could be arranged in exchange for giving naming rights to Congress, as I have urged in the past.

All in all, it sounds like a pretty reasonable deal to me, as long as the council members stop their dickering and actually deliver a final financing package. MLB should not expect much if anything more. Governments by their very nature are not oriented toward the bottom line, and the only way to put a brake on cost overruns is for self-interested private interests to assume the risk. It's the American Way.

UPDATE: Neil deMause at fieldofschemes.com thinks that the stadium deal may be dead, and that MLB may start talking about contracting the Nationals and Marlins. Whoa! He cites a Washington Times report that Council member Jack Evans is very pessimistic about persuading enough of his colleagues to pass the necessary financing bill. Well, Jack's been known to be moody in the past, but you know how hard-core fans can be...

Barry's drug problem

Just as this matter reaches a delicate climax, yet another drug incident has undermined Washington's reputation. D.C. Council member Marion Barry tested positive for cocaine after tax evasion charges were filed against him two months ago. He is in bad health condition anyway, and it may be hard for him to attend all the council meetings this year. See Washington Post. It's quite a shame.

Sammy Sosa to D.C.?

I avoid trafficking in rumors, but this one is just too good. Sammy Sosa, who performed miserably last season with the Baltimore Orioles, in spite of being paid $18 million, is discussing a possible contract with the Washington Nationals. See Washington Post. Apparently no other team wants him, and the Nats desperately need a slugger, so it may be worth a shot. Oops! Freudian slip...

Reactions to Sutter

David Pinto is among those who is irate over the elevation of Bruce Sutter rather than Goose Gossage to the Hall of Fame. See baseballmusings.com. Bruce Orser, intrepid stadium researcher, opines that there should be special sections in the Hall of Fame for specialized players such as closers, designated hitters, great fielders whose bats weren't that great, and those who had shortened careers.

January 12, 2006 [LINK]

Venezuelan arms purchases

Hugo Chavez criticized the U.S. government for, he says, blocking a sale of EMBRAER military aircraft made in Brazil. He elaborated:

It's the same with the F-16s; they deny us maintenance to improve them, delay the spare parts. But we are not worried. We've sent a commission to Moscow, and if we have to replace the F-16 fleet with a fleet of new MiGs, then we will. SOURCE: CNN.com

That's the same song and dance Peru went through in the 1970s, when a leftist military government ruled there. The generals bought hundreds of Soviet T-55 tanks, armored troop carriers, and dozens of Su-22 supersonic attack jets, among other goodies. Result: Increased regional tensions with Chile and Ecuador, depleted regular armed forces that might have fought the then-nascent Shining Path terrorist group, and billions of dollars of increased foreign debt that Peru could not afford, and which were ultimately defaulted.

Morales plans oil & gas takeover

While in South Africa, having completed his tour of European capitals, President-elect Evo Morales declared that his government will buy out foreign shares of Bolivia's petroleum and natural gas reserves. Pipelines and refineries would remain in foreign hands, however. See Washington Post. We should expect more such mixed messages as the new leader tries to balance living up to his campaign pledges against the realities of world markets.

Nationalizing the oil industry is the same song and dance Peru went through in the [late 1960s], when a leftist military government [began ruling] there. The attempt to minimize economic (trade) dependency on the outside world backfired, as the financing required to make the purchase saddled Peru with billions of dollars of increased foreign debt that Peru could not afford, and which were ultimately defaulted. (Sound familiar?)

Is it any wonder I call Latin America "The Land of Eternal Eternity"? It often seems that nothing much really changes.

January 12, 2006 [LINK]

Alito withstands Dems' "torture"

The Alito hearings are about to conclude, and the nominee has acquitted himself exceedingly well, leaving little doubt that he will be confirmed. The Democrats' attempts to wear him down psychologically with smears and innuendos backfired when his wife left the room in tears yesterday. The suggestion by Sen. Kennedy and other Democrats that Alito's past membership in the "Concerned Alumni of Princeton" was indicative of hostility to minority rights was not borne out by any other evidence. This time Sen. Lindsey Graham played a very useful role in coming to Alito's defense when he really needed such verbal support. Rush Limbaugh noted that the treatment inflicted upon Alito was tantamount to "torture," which is a bit of a stretch, but it may well fit the absurdly loose definitions of torture that have been applied by many leftists in recent months at least. Actually, Jacqueline drew that clever comparison the day before, on Tuesday. ¡Megadittos, mi amor! Does this prove that torture cannot be counted on to coax information out of people being interrogated? This is ironic, to say the least.

I wouldn't entirely discount worries about Alito's membership in that Princeton group, given what has been written by some people who have knowledge about that group, but his explanation about the ROTC expulsion from Princeton seems convincing. In any case, we shouldn't hold a person's past organizational affiliations (think Sen. Robert Byrd, D-WV) or youthful indiscretions (think Bill Clinton) against him or her many years later. Most of us do grow up and acquire more mature, responsible attitudes. There is no question that Alito is such a person of superb character and mature judgment.

Sen. Chuck Schumer was practically fuming that Alito stuck to his guns by answering questions about hypothetical future cases by explaining the process by which he would reach a decision, reserving judgment about what decision he would probably reach. That is exactly what good, impartial judges are supposed to do! Schumer's demand that Alito state in advance how he would vote on abortion cases -- i.e., the outcome -- shows that he is not the least bit interested in Alito's judicial capacity and integrity, but merely wants him to make a pledge on a woman's "freedom to choose" as a prerequisite for ascending to the Supreme Court.

The Democrats' inability to lay a glove on Alito means they will have to rethink their strategy as a minority party, and the need to impose self-discipline on themselves to avoid grandstanding. The party's most notorious loud-mouths are now getting their comeuppance, and most of them will hopefully remain relatively muted for a few weeks. Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen, a stalwart moderate liberal, laments the Democrats' wrong-headed approach, zeroing in on Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), the loudest of the loud-mouths:

[Biden's] manic-obsessive running of the mouth has become the functional equivalent of womanizing or some other character weakness that disqualifies a man for the presidency. It is his version of corruption, of alcoholism, of a fierce temper or vile views -- all the sorts of things that have crippled candidates in the past.

It's the same glory-craving affliction that has plagued many good men and women in public service, including Sen. John McCain.

Finally, let us pay respects to Sen. Arlen Specter, who is recovering from cancer treatments and has a full head of hair once again, for standing up against the bullying of Ted Kennedy yesterday. Some Republicans have misgivings about the moderates on their side of the aisle, but Specter showed that his desire to maintain civility in the halls of Congress does not mean that he will put up with arrogance and disruptive behavior by members of the opposition party, especially not when it is part of a smear campaign reminiscent of the Joe McCarthy era. "Have they no sense of decency?"

Liberal speaks out

UPDATE: From Power Line Blog comes this first-hand perspective from Susan Sullivan, a "card carrying member of the ACLU" who worked as a law clerk with Alito in 1990-1991. She wrote an op-ed piece defending the judge:

As a liberal, what scares me is not the prospect of having Sam Alito on the Supreme Court; what scares me is the way my fellow Liberal Democrats are behaving in response to the nomination. I'm appalled and embarrassed by the fear mongering, the personal attacks and what I see as an irresponsible and misleading distortion of his real judicial record as well as his character. Now the threat of a filibuster lurks and Senator Kennedy's tirade about documents being concealed, seems like little more than a pretext to justify a filibuster.

January 12, 2006 [LINK]

Bell's Lane P.M.

I stopped at Bell's Lane on the way home late this afternoon (sunny and mild!), and saw two or three of the Short-eared owls that showed up for Allen Larner's ABC field trip last Sunday. The adult male Northern harrier was patrolling the fields, and a Sharp-shinned hawk and a Great blue heron were also present. The flock of Canada geese was much smaller than before, probably no more than 200, and no Snow geese appeared. Several white-crowned sparrows were in the bushes along the road, and I heard some Meadowlarks as well.

January 13, 2006 [LINK]

Hail to the Redskins AND Nationals!

Many people rightly give credit to Coach Joe Gibbs for the fact that the Washington Redskins are in the NFL playoffs for the first time since the 1999-2000 season. What about the possibility that competition with the new Washington Nationals team for the loyalty of D.C.-area sports fans might have been just the kick in the rear that the Redskins needed? Such competition was believed by many people (including me) to have spurred the Orioles to take first place in the AL East early last season.

The Redskins will be playing against the Seahawks (a non-existent bird species) tomorrow in Seattle, where it has been raining for 40 days and 40 nights, more or less. I had thought that Qwest Field had a retractable roof, like next-door Safeco Field, but I recently learned that that huge roof with the arch suspension is actually fixed. It covers 70 percent of the seats, so most of the fans will stay relatively dry even if the rain does continue. It's sort of like Texas Stadium, home of the Cowboys. Otherwise, most stadiums designed for football have little if any roof. Toronto's old Exhibition Stadium would be one big exception. People occasionally ask me if I intend to cover football stadiums in the same way I cover baseball stadiums. I seriously doubt it, but I would be glad to collaborate with someone who wants to take on such a project. There is already one such site: Stadiums of NFL, but from what I can tell, it's not updated very often.

D.C. baseball timeline

The chronology section of the Baseball in D.C. page has been updated for the first time in several months. There is still a gap from July to early October.

UPDATE: That page also includes the likelihood of voting "yes" on the stadium funding bill for each of the 13 council members. Of course, that would depend on the precise terms, so my "guesstimates" don't mean very much.

Movie: The Slugger's Wife

TBS recently broadcast the 1985 movie The Slugger's Wife, which I had not seen before. It starred Michael O'Keefe and Rebecca De Mornay, better known for her roles in Risky Business (1983) and The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (1992). Frankly, she was not terribly impressive in the role of a pop singer from the South. I noticed from the credits on the Internet Movie Database Web page that oddball singer Loudon Wainwright III ["Dead Skunk"]* made an apprearance, but I didn't notice him. Quite a few of the game scenes were filmed in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, and both that page and the Civic Religion page have been updated accordingly.

* CORRECTION: I had originally put "Werewolves of London," but was just told by David Peck that the singer-songwriter who created that classic from the '70s was the (late) Warren Zevon, who also wrote "Lawyers, Guns, and Money," often cited by Prof. Herman Schwartz at U.Va. (I checked the Apple Music Store just to make sure.) Thanks, Dave!

January 13, 2006 [LINK]

Incessant flirting by Princess

Driven by raging hormones, perhaps, Princess just can't stop flirting at the window, flapping her wings and chirping loudly. George jealously stands vigil around her, just in case. Today a Mockingbird in the bush aroused Princess's attention. Interspecies romance? Hey, she's not too picky. Goldfinches (which are related to canaries) have been scarce here recently, perhaps frightened away by hawk attacks.

"Curious George" flew into our bathroom earlier this week, and I snapped a photo of him perched on the shower curtain rod; click on this image to see. He stopped singing in December, but his libido seems not to have diminished.

January 13, 2006 [LINK]

Rising tensions with Canada?

While most Americans' security fears are directed toward the southern border, our northern frontier cannot be ignored either. Sadly, public opinion in Canada is turning against the Good Ol' U.S.A., to the extent that cooperation on security matters may be hindered. Prime Minister Paul Martin, who is fighting for his political life amidst a massive corruption scandal, recently warned that his fair country might become susceptible to "right-wing extremism" like the United States. [See CNN.com.] Say it isn't so! Coincidentally or not, the Washington Post recently published an amusing feature story in the Style section by Peter Carlson, "Raiding the Icebox," which described the contingency plans for a U.S. invasion of Canada, since 1930. Surprisingly, Canada had developed plans for an attack against the United States nine years previously!

Michael Ignatieff, a Canadian professor of political science who currently teaches at Harvard, has gotten into trouble in his home country by defending, with some reservations, U.S. policy in Iraq. Daniel Drezner discusses this case.

Unmentionable wackos

You may notice that I don't spend much time bewailing the idiocy of various nitwits who say obnoxious, absurd things just to attract public attention. To be perfectly clear, the following individuals are considered "beyond the pale" of rational discussion and will henceforth be ignored on this blog:

Harry Belafonte
Pat Robertson
Rev. Al Sharpton
Howard Stern
and others yet to be named...

January 16, 2006 [LINK]

Michelle Bachelet wins in Chile

As expected, Socialist Michelle Bachelet won the second-round presidential election in Chile, and will become the second woman ever elected to that post in Latin America whose ~~husband did not precede her~~ [accession to office had nothing to do with marital ties. Violeta Chamorro was elected president of Nicaragua in 1990 largely as a gesture of support for her martyred husband Pedro. (See correction note on Jan. 18.)] (The first was Mireyra Moscoso, president of Panama from 1999 to 2004.) As soon it became clear that Bachelet had received about 53 percent of the vote, conservative Sebastian Piñera conceded defeat. He picked up most of the votes that had gone to conservative Joaquin Lavin, in the first round, but he would have needed almost all of them to gain an absolute majority. She has served as minister of health and minister of defense under the Lagos government, and seems well qualified. See BBC This historic event sparked euphoric street celebrations in Santiago.

The conservatives in Chile seem to have accepted yet another defeat, some more gracefully than others. Piñera congratulated Bachelet for her triumph, and pledged that his party coalition will adopt a stance of "firm and constructive opposition" toward the new government. One of the conservative parties, the Independent Democratic Union, blamed Piñera's defeat in part on the "abuse of power" and "disinformation campaign" waged by the incumbent government of Ricardo Lagos. See El Mercurio Online (Spanish). Why do the right-leaning parties keep losing in a country that has been such a showcase for capitalist success? To a large extent, it's the legacy of General Pinochet, who has never expressed remorse for the murders, torture, and disappearances that his government carried out. Most Chileans are probably deeply torn over the meaning of the Pinochet Era. They recognize that his policies set the stage for a remarkable era of prosperity, at least by Latin American standards, and yet the sensibilities of the large, well-educated middle class are deeply hostile to the authoritarian values he imposed. It's much like Spain, where the legacy of Franco taints anyone who openly espouses conservative values and principles. It is better to keep such thoughts to one's self. That is why in practice, Socialists in Spain and Chile tend to govern very pragmatically, knowing that they must not kill the market-economics "goose" that laid the "golden egg" of prosperity.

What about the future? Since Chile has had Socialist or left-leaning presidents for the last sixteen years, ever since the Pinochet dictatorship ended, I don't foresee any major policy changes after Bachelet takes office. There will almost certainly be sharp tensions surrounding cultural issues, however. Having an agnostic like her serve as president will no doubt deeply offend many Catholics in Chile, and her professed "belief in the state" will no doubt cause high anxiety for many free-market liberals -- the "Chicago boys" and [folks like] them; see Dec. 10 post.

Here's a linguistic conundrum: should Bachelet be called Señorita or Señora? She is an unmarried mother, a situation that the Spanish language does not accommodate.

UPDATE: In her first detailed comments about her future policy plans since her election victory, Ms. Bachelet declared that her cabinet will consist of an equal number of men and women, as the first step toward creating a "more equitable society." Hopefully Chile will avoid the pitfall of affirmative action quotas that have paradoxically slowed progress toward social equity in this country, and which remain a source of social distrust. She also expressed a desire to improve relations with Peru and Bolivia, and voiced conditional support for the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas, which is rather remarkable for a socialist. See BBC.

January 16, 2006 [LINK]

MLK: Imagine the possibilities

Most people commemorate Martin Luther King Day by pointing to progress in the field of civil rights since his death, or the lack thereof. That mode of discourse is well and good, but eventually it is going to grow terribly stale, until we finally lose any remaining appreciation for what his struggles meant for this nation. What I would like to emphasize is the astounding transformation he achieved by opening people's minds to previously outlandish possibilities. Like the heroic liberal-minded patriots during the American Revolution, who practically created new rights out of thin air just be declaring them to be "self-evident," King literally created a new social reality in the 1960s by his gift of prophecy and his force of will. Is there any reason why we can't be stirred from our complacent, conformist slumber here in the early 21st Century, and break the bonds of conventional wisdom that keep us trapped in boredom, mediocrity, anxiety, and despair? No, there is not.

January 16, 2006 [LINK]

"RINOs" in Richmond save Potts

The Virginia General Assembly convened one week ago, and one of the first questions was what to do about Sen. Russ Potts, who has long identified himself as a Republican, but who ran as an independent candidate for governor last year. He didn't draw enough votes to have made a difference in the outcome, but it was a clear gesture of repudiation to the state party organization nonetheless. Earlier in the week, GOP conservatives tried to remove Potts as chairman of the Senate Education and Health Committee, on the grounds that he did not truly belong to a political party as required by Senate rules, but they were unable to muster a majority to do so. Just to make sure they could not do so again, "the Senate approved, 35-4, a new rule declaring that only the chamber could decide -- by a minimum of two-thirds, or 27 votes -- whether a member, indeed, has quit his or her political party." While they were at it, they eliminated one of the staff positions in the office of Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, a clear slap in the face to the man who has just taken office. See Richmond Times-Dispatch. "Commonwealth Conservative" blogger Chad Dotson identifies the three Republican senators who voted with the Democrats to keep Potts in his current chairmanship: Fred Quayle, John Chichester, Charles Hawkins.

To me, this is all too bizarre to comprehend. I am on record (see posts from Dec. 14, Dec. 9, and May 21, 2005) as viewing with strong distaste the epithet "RINO" (Republicans In Name Only), seeing that as unduly exclusionary of moderates within the party. Of course, I tend toward the moderate side in some areas, especially environmental and social issues, and I remain firmly committed to maintaining constructive dialogue not only within the Republican party but between the Republican and Democrat parties. I believe in building a strong majority that can govern effectively and carry out much-needed reforms of our statist, entitlement-plagued society. That being said, I must voice outrage at the Republican moderates in the Virginia Senate for undermining party cohesiveness. It is one thing to take a dissenting position on grounds of principle, but if people who go the next step and actively work against the party without being punished for it, then the party will be begin to crumble. After all, what in blazes is the point of being a party member if there is no discipline or sense of common purpose?

The rain on Kaine

The inauguration of Tim Kaine as Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia took place in Williamsburg, the capital of Virginia until 1780, because the Capitol building in Richmond is undergoing extensive repairs. The event was marred by steady, chilly rain, ruining the chance to showcase the historical charms of Colonial Williamsburg (), which has been hurt by a recent decline in tourism. Kaine maintained his upbeat, optimistic tone, making the ritualistic appeal to bipartisanship. Republicans could be forgiven for resisting such outreach, having been outmaneuvered and burned by Governor Warner on the tax hike two years ago, but what the heck: Let's give bipartisanship another try!

Warner's parting shot

One of former Governor Mark Warner's last official acts was to grant voting rights to 3,414 convicted felons. This was several times more than any other recent governor, of either party. See Washington Times (via Steve Kijak.) It reminds one of former President Clinton's pardon of mega-swindler Marc Rich in the final days of his term.

January 17, 2006 [LINK]

Photographs & memories *

In today's Staunton News Leader, retired editor Fred Pfisterer talks about how someone in his family dug out their old slides and transferred them onto a computer with a scanner, and then burned them onto DVDs as gifts to help in sharing old memories. I used my iMac and a scanner to do the same thing a couple years ago (onto CDs, that is), though I only scratched the surface of my grandfather's slide archives. For anyone who is lucky enough to possess such a treasury of photographic records, in slides or in print, I highly recommend taking the time to do likewise. Presented for your amusement is the Clem family at Christmas, 1962. That's me in the space helmet. On the floor is the board game "Video Village," based on a TV game show.

* That's the name of an old Jim Croce song.

Taking a cue from some other "photo-bloggers," I have put together a new photo gallery page:
Best photos of 2005. Not surprisingly, many of the 25 visual gems are from our trip to Costa Rica, including several colorful birds. I touched up a few of them by enhancing the sharpness.

January 17, 2006 [LINK]

Kling on dialogue with liberals

In Tech Central Station (via Instapundit), Arnold Kling has begun a series of essays aimed at reaching out to liberals, most of whom are prone to put down conservatives without seriously considering the merits of the argument. He brings up a problem known as "confirmation bias," the common human tendency to pay more attention to things that reinforce our ingrained beliefs, and vice versa. He discusses the recent passage by the Maryland legislature (overriding the veto of Gov. Bob Ehrlich) of a law requiring Wal-Mart to pay higher health benefits to its workers. The law did not specify Wal-Mart by name, but its criteria were obviously aimed at that company and no one else. Kling applies cool logic to show why this measure will almost certainly backfire, reducing take-home pay and/or job opportunities for low-skill people. That outcome seems not to matter to folks who derive pleasure from sticking it to the evil big corporations, however. Is there any way to get through to people who base policy preferences on crude emotion?

Ultimately, I think, Kling's patient, earnest approach will yield better results than the strident, tit-for-tat rhetoric of those such as Ann Coulter, author of How to Talk to a Liberal (see amazon.com).

Ray Nagin flirts with kookhood

New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin is veering dangerously close to the "unmentionable wacko" category I established last week. He took the occasion of Martin Luther King's birthday to say that last year's hurricanes showed that "God is mad at America." Then he promised to keep New Orleans a "chocolate" city. How would people react if a white mayor in a similar situation pledged to keep whites a majority in his city? Obviously, we as a people are far from living up to King's dream of a society that is blind with respect to skin color. See Yahoo news (via Phil Faranda).

January 18, 2006 [LINK]

Jose Guillen plugs Sammy Sosa

Jose Guillen, who earned a reputation as a high-spirited malcontent when he played for the Angels, had some nice words for the troubled former superstar Sammy Sosa, who may try out for the Nationals this spring. Some think that this endorsement will smooth the way for an awkward transition. See MLB.com. I have to say, Guillen and the Nats have been a match made in heaven, and you never know whether Sammy could rekindle his career on a team in which the personal chemistry was just right. Oops, there I go again. It was not intentional, I swear!

Unfortunately, Alfonso Soriano is demanding $2 million more than the $10 million the Nationals were offering, which was already a $2.5 million raise over what he was getting in Texas last year. See MLB.com. What will it take to make the former Yankee happy in Washington? I don't recall him being such a difficult personality. On a more positive note, Brian Schneider signed a four-year contract with the Nationals, for $16 million. That is great news, for he is a reliable, solid, likeable team player.

Twins' stadium prospects fade

In Minnesota, Gov. Pawlenty failed to persuade representatives from the Twins and Hennepin County to come to terms on paying for a new stadium in Minneapolis. He wants to have an acceptable stadium financing bill ready when the legislative session opens on March 1, but it may not happen. The emergency luncheon meeting was in response to a legal motion filed by the Twins that their existing lease at the Metrodome be nullified after the 2006 season is over. Taxpayers would foot just under half the bill of the proposed $478 million ballpark. See startribune.com, and commentary at that newspaper by Andy Brehm: "Replace the Dome or lose Twins." Relocation as early as 2007 is not entirely out of the question.

Negotiations continue in D.C.

The former Mayor of Detroit, Dennis Archer, was chosen to serve as mediator between Major League Baseball and the D.C. government. He is known as a friend of Mayor Tony Williams. If he can't get the two sides to come together within the next 15 days, it will go to a formal arbitration hearing. Mayor Williams plans to submit a revised stadium financing bill to the D.C. Council by the end of the month, and it may be voted upon in early February. See Washington Post. [Mark] Tuohey voiced optimism about reaching a stadium deal, and defended his negotiating abilities versus Jerry Reinsdorf. Many critics think he got taken to the cleaners by those hardball-playing suits of MLB. See Washington Post.

Since most of these negotiating threats and bluffs are purely for effect, it's hard to know what to make of it all. Nevertheless, I've jiggled my estimates of the expected lifetime of the older stadiums and franchise relocation likelihood on the Stadium prospects table. For both the Twins and the Marlins, the likelihood of leaving has increased five percent. I was thinking that my suggested new name for the Marlins in case they move -- the Portland "Salmon" -- just doesn't sound competitive enough; how about the "Whales" or even the "Killer Whales"? Just think, in the extremely unlikely case that MLB pulls the Nationals out of D.C., perhaps the Twins can return to the ancestral home of the franchise, and resume their original identity as the Senators!

Roofs on soccer stadiums

In response to my Jan. 13 post, Adam Myers pointed out that most football (you know, "soccer") stadiums in Europe have large roofs, unlike football stadiums in the U.S. He referred me to an excellent source on that: Football Temples of the World; it's in German, French, and English. From it, I learned that the new soccer stadium on the east edge of Lima, Peru -- "Monumental de la "U" (as in University), which was built in 2000 -- has a bigger capacity than I had thought: 80,000, half again as big as the old Estadio Nacional downtown. It features multiple skybox levels in back of a single rectangular grandstand, with dramatic views of barren mountains in back. It hardly ever rains in Lima, so roofs are beside the point; indeed, many houses are only partially roofed.

January 18, 2006 [LINK]

The emigration issue in Mexico

CNN.com has a good background article on how the issue of emigration (as opposed to immigration on this side of the border) is playing out in Mexico's presidential campaign. The election will be [on July 2]. The three major candidates differ sharply about how to address the problem, but they all agree that any move by the United States to restrict immigration would be an intolerable outrage. Hardly anyone in Mexico dares to suggest that the scarcity of jobs in Mexico might be rooted in the the country's terribly wasteful state-dominated economy. Just as our political discourse is constrained by "political correctness," there are certain touchy subjects that simply cannot be debated openly in Mexico. Those who hoped that NAFTA would spur a wave of liberalization in the domestic market have been sorely disappointed, as the incestuous ties between big business and big government continue pretty much as they have always been. Fox, Fox, Fox... Anyway, the three main candidates are:

Roberto Madrazo, Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Democratic Revolution Party (PRD)
Felipe Calderon, National Action Party (PAN)

This will be a busy year in Latin American politics. Besides Mexico, Haiti, Costa Rica, Colombia, Peru, and Brazil are scheduled to hold presidential elections.

Las Presidentas in Latin America

Robert Book brought to my attention the fact that the first woman to be elected president in Latin America without her husband having served in that office first was Violeta Chamorro, who was elected in Nicaragua in 1990. True, but Chamorro would never have won had she not been married to a man who had been a major opposition leader under the Somoza dictatorship; her husband Pedro was murdered in 1978. Mrs. Chamorro's case is perhaps a middle category between the truly "self-made women" presidents Moscoso of Panama and Bachelet of Chile, on one hand, and the "pretender" Isabel Perón, who suceeded her husband Juan as president upon his death in 1974. In addition, Lydia Gueiler briefly served as president of Bolivia on an interim basis in 1979, and Rosalia Arteaga briefly claimed to be president of Ecuador during the chaos of February 1997. See the Latin American Presidents page, which has new table rows for 2006. I've also corrected and clarified the Jan. 16 blog post. Thank you, Mr. Book.

More photos from Costa Rica

There are two new photo gallery pages from our vacation last year: Costa Rica, Part III (), which features ~~various rural scenes and~~ exotic wildlife, most of which are "freeze frame" images extracted from video clips, and Costa Rica & Nicaragua, 2005 (), which contains no new photos, but simply makes it easier to navigate from one page in that group to another.

UPDATE: I had meant to explain why I am adding new photos so many months after the fact; it's because I felt that the existing still image photos did not convey a good enough sense of what the countryside in Costa Rica looks like. I continue to work on my video project, which will end up as a DVD or two for public (classroom) viewing, and a separate version for "family" audiences. Also, I added this montage after I made the original post.

2nd UPDATE: This montage was subsequently modified on Jan. 24.

3rd UPDATE: I forgot to note that the rural scenes photos from which the adjacent montage was taken are now at: Costa Rica, Part IV. ()

January 18, 2006 [LINK]

Catbird is still here

I took a quick walk along the trail behind the Staunton-Augusta Rescue Squad for the first time since January 7 this morning, and soon saw the Gray catbird that has been lingering here in these cold climes, while the rest of its species has migrated south. Talk about a "rugged individualist"! I also saw several Bluebirds, House finches, Goldfinches, Blue jays, Chickadees, White-throated sparrows, and a Towhee. One of the Blue jays was imitating the scream of a Red-shouldered hawk, as they often do. For such a chilly and blustery day (a mixture of snow and sleet fell for a few minutes), the birds were surprisingly active and plentiful. Oddly, however, no woodpeckers or nuthatches were to be seen. There were 20 or so Goldfinches in our yard, the most we've seen in several days.

January 19, 2006 [LINK]

Rice redeploys diplomats

Speaking at Georgetown University, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced a major transfer of American diplomatic resources away from Europe, and toward the Middle East and other strategic parts of the Third World. This was a long-overdue move that will help the United States cope more effectively with the wide variety of challenges we face in this rapidly-evolving world. What was particularly interesting was the way Ms. Rice tied this move to a broader intellectual framework for guiding policy, i.e., "transformational diplomacy":

The greatest threats now emerge more within states than between them. ... The fundamental character of regimes now matters more than the international distribution of power. (SOURCE: Washington Post)

In a nutshell, this brief quote distills the essence of what distinguishes "neoclassical" realists, with whom I identify, from the traditional "state-centric" realists, such as Ken Waltz. I saw him on a panel at the APSA meeting in Washington in early September, and everyone agreed that the war in Iraq was a disaster. To me, the lack of serious debate over this issue indicated a profound intellectual blind spot, a sign of stagnation within the discipline. It so happens that my dissertation explicitly dealt with the ambiguous structure of the international system to which Rice alluded: "anarchic" (corresponding to traditional sovereignty) vs. "hierarchic" (which allows for varying degrees of state consolidation within the system, as is the case in today's world). Perhaps the time is ripe for those of us with an unconventional take on international relations...

Merkel visits Washington

It is interesting that this historic de-emphasis of Europe in American diplomacy comes so soon after Angela Merkel, who was just sworn in as the first woman chancellor of Germany, visited the White House. Her conservative government is a welcome breath of fresh air after the chilly relations that were brought about by her predecessor, the Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder. Lacking a majority, however, she must tread lightly in foreign affairs, so her desire to restore traditional warm German-American relations is constrained by domestic politics. This may be why she made a major point about urging the United States to close down the Guantanamo prison for terrorists. Bush demurred, with good reason, but I really think he should have taken the opportunity to reward Ms. Merkel's outstretched hand of friendship with a concrete gesture of reciprocity. For a transcript of the joint press conference, see whitehouse.gov.

January 19, 2006 [LINK]

Views on Iran's nuclear ambitions

The recent defiant words and actions by the government of Iran on its plans to resume nuclear development are a chilling reminder that the civilized world remains in dire peril, notwithstanding the progress underway in Iraq. This is one of the rare occasions where the vain phrase "international community" actually has some concrete meaning. After some foot-dragging, Russia and China realized that a global crisis sparked by Iran would not serve their interests, and agreed to take this matter up at the U.N. Security Council. Barring some diplomatic miracle, however, collective security action cannot be counted on. That leads us to the uncomfortable question of, What should the United States do about it?

In the Daily Telegraph, John Keegan applies cold, hard Machiavellian logic, reminding us of the useful role that Saddam Hussein played in contaning Iranian expansion in the 1980s. That, of course, is why George Bush The Elder refrained from toppling the Baath regime after liberating Kuwait in 1991. It was called the strategy of "balancing," as described by former NSC official Raymond Tanter in his book Rogue Regimes: playing Iran and Iraq off against each other, tilting toward one or the other, as circumstances warranted. Because such a cynical posture rubbed American sensibilities the wrong way, however, at times during the 1980s and 1990s, the United States tried "dual containment" of both Iraq and Iran. Trying to do so for a prolonged period of time was beyond our resource capabilities, however. Keegan goes on to explain why economic sanctions would be futile, and possibly counterproductive, in this situation:

Sanctions would interfere with the Western lifestyle of Iran's educated young people. The ayatollahs, however, have little interest in supporting that lifestyle, indeed, rather the opposite, while Iran's educated youth have given heavy proofs that their national pride weighs heavier than their access to Western luxuries.

That is why, Keegan concludes, that military action must be considered as an option, if all else fails. Israel is not in a position to do to Iran what it did to Iraq in 1981, which is probably just as well. (I always like to remind those who claim that Iraq was a U.S. "ally" during the 1980s how the destruction of the Osirak nuclear reactor was widely, if tacitly, cheered by Washington.) Those who cringe at the thought of a new front opening in the war against Islamo-fascism must understand one essential fact: Much of the terrorist insurgency in Iraq is being orchestrated and funded by the mullahs in Iran. Like it or not, we are already at war with Iran.

That unpleasant fact does not automatically mean that our people or government are prepared to carry such a war forward, however. Wretchard at Belmont Club puts it well:

The ayatollah's fundamental defense lies in the well-founded belief that the United States has expended too much political capital in deposing Saddam to undertake another regime change operation in Teheran.

One could justifiably fault the Bush administration for failing to prepare the American people for the long, arduous road ahead in this conflict. The rhetoric of "Mission Accomplished" turns out to have been grossly overoptimistic.

Austin Bay weighs in on what various experts have written on this subject. Timothy Garton Ash, a leading scholar of the transition from communism in Eastern Europe, is utterly "fixated" on following the correct "process" in confronting Iran, ignoring the need for political courage and risk-taking by leaders in the West. Daniel Pipes observed the serene glee of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after bragging about how Iran would pursue its own destiny when speaking to the United Nations recently. He and other Iranian leaders are in a state of delusion that Allah has bequeathed upon them destiny for remaking world order, restoring the Caliphate via nuclear weaponry. Yikes.

Daniel Drezner respond to some of the sillier arguments made about the Iran situation by the leading leftist bloggers: Josh Marshall and Kos. (Weary from their incessant, mindless bile, I've almost stopped visiting those sites in recent months.) Moderate liberal Kevin Drum makes more sense. If the situation is as dire as John Keegan and others think it is, the time for derisive mockery of U.S. government policy will quickly end. People will start to realize that this is war. More than that, it may well become a global war.

Not all of the foolishness is on the left, however. In her analysis of what Iran is up to, Carol Devine-Molin at gopusa.com veers toward the "hysterical" view of terrorists, that they are despicable vermin that must be exterminated. This is the opposite of the "sentimental" stereotype, whereby terrorists are regarded as misguided reformers, as described by Conor Cruise O'Brien in his book Passion and Cunning: Essays on Nationalism, Terrorism, and Revolution. Both of these extreme views fail to consider the political nature of the violent tactics the terrorists use. Ms. Devine-Molin goes on to deride the "worthless apparatchiks and terrorist sympathizers at the UN," and the "European socialists." Personally, I would not waste one second defending the U.N. bureaucrats or European diplomats, but one does not accomplish things in international relations by gratuitously insulting potential allies -- even the unreliable ones. They do have their use, from time to time, and more importantly, they usually act according to their own interests, which sometimes coincide with ours. It's true! Ms. Devine-Molin is on firmer ground, however, when describing Iran's thuggish President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He is a menace.

My take, FWIW:

Many people would like to ignore Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, for saying he wants to "wipe Israel from the map," but the ayatollahs who control him from behind the scenes give every indication of being deadly serious about using their power for precisely that objective. All this must be seen in the context of the theocratic regime's ongoing effort to turn back the domestic tide of liberal democratic reform by the technique of "defiant foreign policy," one of the main themes in my dissertation. Most academics and policy experts regard the pathologies of the contemporary Middle East as sui generis, but I remain convinced that there is a fundamental structural imbalance in the way the current global political economy operates (hint: World Bank-IMF), which practically impels Third World governments toward "irrational," extreme provocations that undermine international security whenever economic setbacks undermine their political support at home. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is the best example of this tendency, but he is hardly alone. There are no quick solutions to dealing with regimes that pursue defiant foreign policies. The point of my research is to detect patterns across countries, and across time within individual countries, and to scrutinize international institutions that may prevent the "natural" workings of the market and the balance of power from working properly, giving rise to policy pathologies such as "diversionary war."

Meanwhile, back in Iraq

Suicide bombers continue to pound away, even as hostilities between religious extremists and the Sunni ethnic group have escalated into outright violence in some sectors in Iraq. Even though there are only scant crude petroleum deposits in the regions of Iraq where they dominate, the Sunnis have the advantage of possessing the vital refineries at the heart of the pipeline network. The biggest refinery is in the Sunni town of Bayji, north of Baghdad, and the U.S. 101st Airborne Division is currently trying to clear insurgents out of that dangerous town. See Washington Post. The war often does look like a case of the proverbial bump in the carpet popping up somewhere else whenever you push it down in one place, which lends credence to those who argue we simply don't have enough ground forces to pacify Iraq.

Perhaps more worrisome is the growing reliance on private security guards, which will presumably increase as the United States, Britain, and Italy gradually withdraw combat forces over the next year. On Nov. 17 I drew attention to the use of former military personnel from Latin America, including Peru. I learned about that from Latin news sources, but I have not seen in mentioned in the mainstream media. The PBS Frontline program recently addressed this problem of "quasi-mercenaries," which are often untrained and unaccountable, undermining the legitimacy of the new democratic government in Baghdad. The use of such guards is not necessarily fatal, as businesses in many countries such as Peru and Colombia learned to cope in this way with low-level terrorist campaigns in the 1980s, but pro-war folks do need to face up to this weak spot in the Iraq security situation.

One of the "pure realists" who opposed the liberation of Iraq as being contrary to the U.S. goal of maintaining a stable balance of power in the Persian Gulf, was Brent Scowcroft. He wrote a Washington Post op-ed piece ("Focusing on 'Success' In Iraq") that takes a step back from the harsh criticism of the war he has expressed, turning his attention to achieving the best possible outcome. Well, that's at least a sign of some progress toward consensus on the domestic front.

Cutback in National Guard

The Army announced that the number of National Guard combat brigades will be cut from 28 to 34 over the next few years, to facilitate a shift in emphasis from fighting wars to handling abrupt emergencies such as hurricanes. Plans to expand the size of the regular Army are going ahead, but the goal has been cut from 43 brigades to 42. Because the National Guard enjoys strong political support in many states, however, implementing this plan may be difficult. See Washington Post.

The war on the home front

Congressman Bob Goodlatte had a meeting last night with constitutents in Stuarts Draft, about ten miles from Staunton. A dozen or so people from the Augusta Coalition for Peace and Justice showed up to protest the war in Iraq, but Goodlatte held his ground:

To withdraw troops in a rapid fashion would be unconscionable. It would endanger U.S. citizens; it would endanger Iraqi citizens. (SOURCE: Staunton News Leader.)

It's always good to hear a politician take a strong, principled stand on a controversial issue, rather than hemming and hawing for the sake of a few extra votes. Rhonda Winfield, mother of Cpl. Jason Redifer, who was killed in Iraq one year ago, spoke out in favor of finishing the mission, while expressing hope for national unity and mutual understanding between pro-war and anti-war factions. She is a true national treasure.

UPDATE: Steve Kijak attended the Goodlatte meeting, and provides some in-depth coverage of what went on with the protesters. (via Chad Dotson) I might have gone myself, but did not become aware of the meeting until it was already underway.

January 20, 2006 [LINK]

Half a decade with George

Today marks the fifth anniversary of the (second) Bush administration, as well as the fifth anniversary of the day we bought our male canary George. (Coincidence? Not!) He and Princess remain active and in excellent health, but there is no way of knowing how many more years they will be with us.

I was lucky to get this photo of George taking a bath under good light conditions on Wednesday. He bathes less often than Princess, and usually does so nervously and hastily. Click on this image to see "the better half" bathing herself, just over two years ago.

January 20, 2006 [LINK]

Iran: invasion or containment?

As suggested yesterday, military options to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons cannot be ruled out. But land war?? It sounds like imperial overstretch run amuck, but that's what Thomas Holsinger suggests at Winds of Change. He refers to a war plan outlined in the December 2004 Atlantic Monthly (not exactly "recent," contrary to what he wrote) that foresaw an invasion force of three U.S. divisions aiming to topple the Islamic regime and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. They would not wait around to police the aftermath, however. Indeed, Iran's population is nearly three times that of Iraq, far beyond our capacity to manage. Even my gung-ho buddy Chris Green grants the possibility that such an operation may be going "a country too far." Holsinger believes that Iran must have acquired some additional capability very recently to warrant President Ahmadinejad's escalation of rhetorical defiance. Sales of nuclear components or fully assembled bombs from North Korea? His estimate that Iran will have deployable nuclear weapons by the end of the year may be unduly alarmist, but the thrust of his argument that there is a fast-closing "window of vulnerability," after which Iran will have a deterrent capacity, is certainly correct. He is also right to say that the danger is not that Iran would necessarily use its bombs, but that it would keep them as a reserve deterrent against the United States while it escalates its campaign of fomenting international terrorism. In that case, "The invasion of Iraq will have been a complete waste of effort, and our dead in Iraq will have died in vain."

In today's Washington Post, David Ignatius discusses options for "Containing Tehran." In one sense, the analogy of containment of the Soviet Union during the Cold War is appropriate: In neither case was direct military confrontation desirable, but backing down was not a workable option either. Hence, the prudent middle option of containment: applying steady political-economic pressure to resist the Soviet Union's geopolitical advances, giving free societies time to develop and waiting for the enemy's totalitarian system to rot, while making preparations for all-out war if worse came to worse. There is a huge, obvious difference between the situation in 1950 and today, however: time is not on our side. Iran would benefit by dragging things out, which puts the pressure on our side to act right away. But toward what end? I seriously doubt that "bend[ing] Iranian radicalism back toward an acceptable norm," as Ignatius puts it, is a realistic goal, but I would agree with him that the Bush administration should "look ... before they leap."

Since we don't have any good options, the key is to pick the least bad option. The point is to avoid rash actions. As long as we keep in mind the nature of Iran's theocratic government -- in which the president's power is limited, while top mullahs on the "Revolutionary Council" reign supreme in the background -- we can avoid panicking over the belligerent rhetoric of Ahmadinejad, which may be just for show. As with Iraq, the U.S. goal must be regime change, and the Bush administration must make crystal clear the connection between the fascist aspirations of the "rogue" theocracy in Tehran and their promotion of terrorism and pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. The first step should be to encourage pacifist, reform-minded forces in Iran, who were on the rise until a year or two ago. They are our best hope for a

January 2006 Archives

Annual archives (by topic)

Monthly archives (all topics)

DuPuy plays hardball vs. D.C.

Top 20 questions

Animal personality quiz

Abramoff cops blea bargain

Happy Newt Year?

Phony civil libertarians

MLB moves toward arbitration

Prolonging RFK's lifetime

Football/baseball stadiums

Construction photos

Venezuela pledges aid to Bolivia

Zapatistas adopt peaceful means

Peru seeks Fujimori's extradition

Brazil prison riot

Haiti still turbulent

Deepest agony in West Virginia

Former News Leader publisher sets record straight

Marion Barry robbed

Dirty money give-backs

Swann for Governor

Arbtitration process begins

Nats news bits

Memorabilia queries

Holiday cactus

Even worse carnage in Iraq

Blankley on national unity

The human toll

"Blue goose" on Bell's Lane

D.C. Council prepares to vote

D.C. Council votes NO!

Twins escape lease obligation

Muslims on (belated) rampage

McCain rebukes Obama

Catbird is still here

Amaryllis flower

For the marine life lover in you

Divisional rotation

Divisional modularization

ABC field trip on Bell's Lane

Fenway Park update

Marlins look for new home

Cooperstown calls Sutter

New stadium drawings blog

Shower with George

Fujimori candidacy is rejected

U.S.-Mexico border tensions

No elections in Haiti

Situation map update

Alito hearings get under way

Note on Roe v. Wade

Virginia Cost Cutting blog

Cropp offers stadium compromise

Barry's drug problem

Sammy Sosa to D.C.?

Reactions to Sutter

Venezuelan arms purchases

Morales plans oil & gas takeover

Alito withstands Dems' "torture"

Liberal speaks out

Bell's Lane P.M.

Hail to the Redskins AND Nationals!

D.C. baseball timeline

Movie: The Slugger's Wife

Incessant flirting by Princess

Rising tensions with Canada?

Unmentionable wackos

Michelle Bachelet wins in Chile

MLK: Imagine the possibilities

"RINOs" in Richmond save Potts

The rain on Kaine

Warner's parting shot

Photographs & memories *

Kling on dialogue with liberals

Ray Nagin flirts with kookhood

Jose Guillen plugs Sammy Sosa

Twins' stadium prospects fade

Negotiations continue in D.C.

Annual archives
(by topic)

Monthly archives
(all topics)