May 10, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Dr. Roller explains his appeal

In the wake of the 15-8 decision last weekend by the Sixth District Republican Committee to recognize Kurt Michael as Augusta County GOP chairman, against the recommendations of a fact-finding committee, Dr. Larry Roller filed an appeal to the Republican Party of Virginia. In a lengthy column that was published in Thursday's News Leader, he explained his reasons for doing so. First, he recounted in plain, matter-of-fact terms, repeated instances of Kurt Michael's refusal to cooperate in the mass meeting itself, and in subsequent mediation efforts. Then he noted the flagrant bias of the Sixth District Republican Committee, which let Dr. Michael speak, but not Dr. Roller. I learned that as Dr. Michael was taking over the mass meeting, he threatened to have State Senator Emmett Hanger thrown out of the room. (!?) I was not aware of that, but it certainly fits the pattern of bullying tactics I have observed him use in the past.

At the express request of elected officials from Augusta County, I have posted Dr. Roller's statement, including a letter declaring support for Dr. Roller as duly elected chairman from all ten of those officials residing in the County, on the Augusta Republicans Web site.

Even though there were procedural flaws in the mass meeting, as I have acknowledged, it would be a gigantic stretch to conclude that the miscues were serious enough to invalidate the election of chairman. It is a basic principle of jurisprudence that breaches of law or rules should be weighed against the probable consequences of the specific breaches. So, without getting into excruciating detail, resolving this dispute is a fairly simple matter for me:

• At the outset of the mass meeting, Kurt Michael tried to rush a vote to become elected as temporary chairman, but had to consent to an alternate nominee and a secret ballot.
• A solid majority of the attendees chose an alternate temporary chairman, Jim Bailey.
• Mr. Bailey duly appointed a person (Jean Shrewsbury) to chair the rules committee.
• The rules committee recommended that the election be held on a one-person-one vote basis, regardless of magisterial district.
• A majority of the attendees verified as registered voters approved this change. *
• A majority of the verified attendees (141-103) voted for Dr. Larry Roller.
• One of the tellers who counted the votes, Tom Nelson, registered his objection to the validity of the vote, without explaining his reasons.
• Temporary chairman Jim Bailey declared the meeting adjourned, and most people began to leave.
• Kurt Michael then announced that he was taking over the meeting without invoking any procedural guidelines to justify such an action**, and declared that the prior proceedings were invalid.

Those are the essential facts of the case, and no one can deny them.*** Did Mr. Bailey skip a few steps during the mass meeting? Yes. Did that change the outcome of the election for chairman? No. In short, it would be extremely difficult for a reasonable person to conclude that the election of Larry Roller was not valid, and even more difficult to conclude that Kurt Michael's subsequent "election" was valid.

* NOTE: The rules approved at the March Augusta County GOP Committee meeting were not binding, but were subject to approval by the mass meeting attendees. That's why there is a rules committee in the first place, for Pete's sake! The standard requirement under Robert's Rules of Order that a two-thirds vote is necessary to suspend the rules applies when an organized society holds one of its regular meetings, not at mass meetings, which are by their very nature open-ended.

** Dr. Michael's failure to invoke such a justification for his unilateral takeover of the mass meeting renders any business that was conducted by the "rump session" dubious at best. That kind of a stunt bears all the creepy hallmarks of a "putsch."

*** NOTE: I sent a batch of "raw and uncut" video and audio files which I had recorded to various party leaders immediately after the mass meeting. Unfortunately, they are not complete, as I was running low on battery power and tape. I had hoped to put up a brief version of this on YouTube, and hopefully will have time to do so in the next few days.

To put all this in context, let me remind the gentle reader that far worse procedural violations were committed at several meetings of the Staunton Republican Committee last year, in the midst of the Hanger-Sayre primary race, and all of the objections we raised and brought to the attention of higher party officials were completely ignored. Quite the contrary, we were castigated as "trouble-makers" and told that filing a formal grievance would cause bad publicity for the party, possibly affecting the outcome of the election last fall. (Ha!) So, our faction decided to zip our lips and hope that reason would eventually prevail. Well, folks, what's good for the goose is good for the gander: If the higher levels of the Republican Party decide to overturn Larry Roller's election as chairman on some minor technicality, after having turned a blind eye to the very grave abuses that were committed by the Michael-Mitchell faction over the two preceding years, then there is essentially no more hope for getting this party to function in a positive, collaborative way.

The general public knows that something is seriously wrong with the Republican Party, so why is it so hard for party leaders to grasp this? The choice facing the RPV Central Committee is simple: favoritism toward insider cronies (a.k.a. "grassroots"), or fair play in the best interests of the party as a whole.

May 8, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Hillary's pandering fails

Having won the Indiana primary election by only a two-percent margin, Hillary Clinton's candidacy is fading fast, and Democrat insiders are calling on her to pull out of the race. Since she is over 100 delegates behind Barack Obama, she needed a decisive win to maintain the recent surge in momentum stemming from the Rev. Wright mess. Now Barack is back in the driver's seat, and only a major gaffe or scandal could ruin his chances now. The North Carolina primary wasn't even close.

The big question was whether Hillary could get traction by "out-pandering" Obama, mobilizing the traditional Democrat "base," consisting mainly of working class union members, and the answer seems to be no. Her advocacy of a "gasoline tax holiday" was classic unmitigated populist gall, eliciting harsh scorn from market-oriented policy wonks. Well, what do you expect? Expecting an Old School Democrat like Hillary (or Bill!) to refrain from pandering to populist impulses is like expecting a dog to refrain from chomping down on a raw steak; it's practically in their DNA. Hillary gave Obama the perfect opportunity to appear rational and statesmanlike, and he seized upon it eagerly, criticizing her "gas tax holiday" idea. For once I agreed with him on a major issue!

Nevertheless, Hillary is vowing to press on in the race, and I can't blame her. (See Washington Post.) She has come way too far in the campaign, and is too close in the total delegate count, to give up now. What's more, most polls are showing that she would do as well or better than Obama in the general election. Whatever you think about conservatives' hidden motives or the effects of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," the process must play itself out. There is no reason for it to get nasty, though that's probably just what will happen, given the high stakes involved. In the end, though, it probably won't matter, and Obama will almost certainly face a rested and refreshed -- though still vulnerable -- John McCain this fall.

Staunton, Waynesboro elections

In the Staunton City Council race (which is officially non-partisan), two Republicans won out of four contested seats: incumbent Dickie Bell and newcomer Andrea Oakes, who fell just short in her first such bid two years ago. Congratulations to both! So, at least conservatives will have a little more representation in the city government, which has been dominated by free-spenders for several years. One other incumbent won (David Metz), along with another newcomer: Ophie Kier, who somehow garnered an endorsement from Delegate Chris Saxman. Yard signs for Metz and Kier seemed to be associated with each other, suggesting they lean toward the Democrats' side. Two other men with ties to the GOP failed: Rusty Ashby, a financial advisor, and Bob Campbell, a country singer.

In the Sunday News Leader, there was a full-page newspaper ad by the "Citizens Committee for Common Sense Government in Staunton" (basically Libby Welsh, but possibly others) endorsing Bell, Ashby, and Campbell, and it appears that campaign finance laws may have been violated; see the News Leader.

In Waynesboro, where council members are elected according to ward, anti-tax conservatives won handily in two contested races (Bruce Allen and Frank Lucente) and picked up a third uncontested seat (David Williams). It was a high-profile campaign with many newspaper ads. This election result will bring about a major shift in that city's government, presumably meaning less public money for downtown redevelopment efforts. Chris Graham, of the Augusta Free Press, who ran against against Bruce Allen in Ward B, had received considerable support from Mayor Thomas Reynolds and from the head of the Wayne Theatre Alliance, Bill Hausrath. See the News Virginian.

May 4, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Is McCain a truer conservative?

Those on the Right who are dismayed that a relative moderate like John McCain will carry the Republican Party's banner this fall should perhaps take heart. Last week the Arizona senator defied conventional wisdom by rejecting universal health coverage, calling for market-based health care reform. This, of course, one of the issues nearest and dearest to my heart. From the Washington Post:

McCain's prescription would seek to lure workers away from their company health plans with a $5,000 family tax credit and a promise that, left to their own devices, they would be able to find cheaper insurance that is more tailored to their health-care needs and not tied to a particular job.

That's a fine start, but at some point the employers' contributions to health care insurance costs will have to be made taxable (perhaps as part of a revenue-neutral tax rate cut) to create a level playing field so that such a decentralized, voluntary, market-based health care reform can work. By distancing himself from the "compassionate conservative" approach of President Bush, McCain has a chance to attract voters who are burned out on grand ideological schemes. (Is Newt Gingrich behind this??) Now if we could only convince McCain that government controls over campaign finance have just as much of a distorting effect as do government controls over medical care...

Just remember, both Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, are determined to make national health care a fundamental "moral" right of all Americans. Ah, the sweet, intoxicating allure of despotic socialism, which never shows its true [face] until it's too late...

In The Atlantic Monthly, meanwhile, Jonathan Rauch suggests other ways in which McCain is -- ironically -- much truer to classical conservative philosophy than many of those in the "Conservative Movement" of today. For example, McCain quoted British conservative thinker Edmund Burke, who emphasized keeping a balance between individual rights and social order. Notwithstanding his reputation as a "maverick," McCain's legislative work in the Senate has been consistently incremental, and his campaign speeches avoid grand promises. In that respect, he stands apart from many of his GOP colleagues, including Newt Gingrich. Rauch observes, "Starting with Barry Goldwater's campaign of 1964, American conservatism repositioned itself as a revolutionary movement, intent on uprooting illegitimate and ineffective liberal structures." That is one of the very few unfortunate legacies of Ronald Reagan, providing rhetorical ammunition to gung-ho activists for whom prudence is a dirty word.

"Conservatives" on the march

Speaking of which, I had a feeling that the extraordinary tensions in the Republican Party were not unique to the SWAC area, and SWAC Girl confirms it. In the 2nd and 7th Congressional Districts, the "conservative grassroots" successfully unseated the incumbent chairmen who had been endorsed by most of the elected officials. She also congratulated Fred Anderson (!) on his narrow reelection victory.

Fact check

Speaking of SWAC Girl, she asked me to make a correction in my previous politics blog post about the Sixth District GOP convention, and I decided to oblige her with some rewording, though the meaning is essentially the same:

Original: If he does, it will be interesting to see if Lynn Mitchell, who called on Fred Anderson to recuse himself from the Michael-Roller dispute, will recuse herself when the Central Committee takes up the matter.

Revised: If he does, it will be interesting to see if Lynn Mitchell, who cited "Yankee Phil" to suggest that Fred Anderson should recuse himself from the Michael-Roller dispute, will recuse herself when the Central Committee takes up the matter.

(Editing marks and links as shown on yesterday's revised blog post are omitted here.) NOTE: My recent attempt to bring a fact check to SWAC Girl's attention was not accepted.

For a more complete report on yesterday's Sixth District GOP convention, in which Kurt Michael was named Augusta County GOP Chairman, see today's News Leader. I had a hunch the deck was stacked, but I had no idea how badly: "While Michael was allowed to address the committee, [Larry] Roller was not because several people objected when he made requests to speak." Well, that figures... On to Richmond!

Movie on radical Islam

Back in March I came across a Washington Post article on Dutch filmmaker Geert Wilders, who recently produced a Web movie, Fitna, that dramatizes the barbaric aggressiveness of radical Islam and its roots in the Quran. Thanks to Dogwood Pundit, I found it on the Web. It last about 15 minutes, and it's well worth watching, if you have enough intestinal fortitude to face up to reality.

May 3, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Sixth District picks Kurt Michael

No big surprise: In Lexington this afternoon, the Sixth District Republican Committee voted 15-8 to recognize Kurt Michael as Chairman of the Augusta County Republican Committee. This was in spite of a recommendation to the contrary made by Vito Gentile (appointed as a fact-finder by Sixth District Chairman Fred Anderson), in spite of Michael's refusal to cooperate with mediation efforts, and in spite of the escalating scandal he brought to the local Republican Party by taking the issue to court. Later [Earlier] in the meeting, Mr. Anderson narrowly turned back a challenge for his post by Jim Crosby.* See newsleader.com. Until more details emerge about the rationale and arguments made on both sides, there is not much point to commenting further on the merits of the decision. Whether the candidate who won more votes in Augusta County (Larry Roller) will appeal this decision to the RPV Central Committee remains to be seen. If he does, it will be interesting to see if Lynn Mitchell, who [cited "Yankee Phil" to suggest that] called on Fred Anderson to [should] recuse himself** from the Michael-Roller dispute, will recuse herself when the Central Committee takes up the matter. She is certainly much more partial in this case than Mr. Anderson is. And if Kurt does win the next round, we will have to see whether he will follow through on his promise to resign. As of today, that commitment actually means something.

* (Crosby served as a supposedly "neutral" mediator when the Staunton Republican Committee was in a state of turmoil last fall, but his main function seemed to be to squelch testimony by committee members on our side. It later became known that he is an ally of Michael and the "SWAC Jobs.")

Since I'm right in the middle of this dispute, I can't pretend to offer an impartial perspective on the recent meltdown in Augusta County, or of Kurt Michael's tumultuous reign as County GOP Chair. That's why I refrain from claiming that our side's candidate (Larry Roller) won, even though it's pretty obvious to me. I would merely like to point out that "war" was declared by Kurt Michael himself in March 2006, nearly a year before the primary campaign of Scott Sayre began, which he falsely claimed was the time when the problems began. In other words, the early skirmishes of the "SWAC War" which had us so puzzled were merely the first step in the long-range plan to unseat State Senator Emmett Hanger.

As I gradually get caught up with the blogosphere, I have come across some interesting and thoughtful perspectives on this tragic situation. If you want a truly "fair and balanced" take on the underlying problem in SWAC Land, just read what Stephen Winslow has to say about Kurt's "sad legacy."

At Roanoke Red Zone, meanwhile, Zak Moore berated Michael for circumventing the party organization and taking the matter to court, calling those tactics "Absolutely disgusting." (And he doesn't know the half of it!) After the Augusta County GOP mass meeting fiasco last month, co-blogger Brandon Bell (a former State Senator) called the Kurt Michael faction the "Phone Booth Republicans," as in that's how many people will be left in the party when they're done wreaking havoc. Bell noted that Michael took "advantage of the parliamentary technicality and def[ied] the will of the majority. Some leader, huh?"

"Huh" indeed.

** Corrections made a day later; see Sunday's blog post for an explanation.

May 2, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Mugabe clings to absolute power

Ever since Zimbabwe held presidential elections on March 29, the country has been lingering in turmoil and suspense as people wait for the results to be announced. The incumbent President (for life?) Robert Mugabe has been using every trick at his disposal to hang onto power, including violent coercion. His clumsy attempts to manipulate the vote count cost him the support of former allies, and the use of police forces in order to silence the opposition has further polarized the country. Over the last few years, Zimbabwe has fallen prey to hyperinflation, with prices climbing at an annual rate of several thousand percent. Today, at last, it was announced that the opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai won a higher percentage of the vote than Mugabe, 47.9% to 43.2%, but without any candidate getting a majority, there will have to be a second-round election -- as long as Mugabe allows it, that is. Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change accused election authorities of fraud. See BBC or CNN.com.

Mugabe, age 84, came to power in 1980 as leader of the Zambian [Zimbabwe] African National Union (ZANU) rebel movement that triumphed over the white supremacist regime of Ian Smith, who died last November. Smith had declared the British colony of Rhodesia to be an independent Republic in 1970, sparking a civil war between Whites and Blacks. The country was renamed "Zimbabwe" when African people won control, prompting a slow but steady exodus of white people, mostly farmers. The country's economy remained in terrible shape for the next two decades, and then it started to get even worse. Nevertheless, Mugabe, maintains control of the country through his "ZANU Popular Front," a coalition of political cronies whose loyalty is bought via government jobs and other favors. Until recently, at least, he maintained broad popularity by using "wedge issues" such as resentment toward the few White farmers who are left. He is a classic populist demagogue.

Whether Mugabe will abide by the voting results in the forthcoming second round election remains to be seen. After all, he made the cover of Parade magazine a couple months ago as one of the world's "Top Ten Dictators." Just last week, Zimbabwean riot police raided the offices of the opposition party and arrested hundreds of people. (See Washington Post.) To Mugabe's "grassroots" supporters, such actions are a sign of strong leadership. To any reasonable person, it would be obvious that Mugabe's tenure has been a total disaster. In short, he has destroyed his country's economic infrastructure, and it will take years to recover. It is hard to understand why a person with such a lousy track record would go to such extreme lengths to retain his power.

Kurt Michael's day in court

The farce that has become the local Republican scene became even more of a farce this past week, as Kurt Michael took the dispute to court. Depending on who you ask, he was either decisively defeated (141-103) or decisively won reelection (57-2) as Augusta County Republican chairman three weeks ago. After failing to appear at a fact-finding meeting on April 27 called by Sixth District Republican chairman Fred Anderson, either because of short notice or having had "more important" things to attend to (see News Leader), Kurt called that meeting "illegal" and filed a court injunction to force recognition that his election was valid, and to have his slate of convention delegates seated. This afternoon, Circuit Court Judge Victor Ludwig denied Michael's request for an injunction, though Kurt claimed to have achieved his goals. (Somebody call a spin doctor!) See News Leader.

It seems ironic that Kurt, the ultimate political insider, has apparently lost faith in the Republican Party hierarchy. (Another irony is that he is using litigation to achieve his ends, a tactic that is usually associated with Democrats. Can you say "frivolous lawsuit"?) He already has lost the support of a number of local "grassroots" who are growing weary at his manipulation of "wedge issues" and are aghast at the public disgrace that his antics have led to. "Stop the insanity!" This latest stunt will no doubt further erode his base of support, and it will take years for the local party organization to recover. I have no idea how the Sixth District Republican Committee will decide the matter tomorrow, though I know there is strong sympathy in favor of Kurt from the abrupt and highly irregular way long-time party loyalist Ray Ergenbright was forced out of the Committee last year.

From what little I have read in the Virginia right-wing blogosphere, there is still a grave misunderstanding of the actual political situation here in "SWAC Land." Eventually, however, the truth will come to light. It always does, one way or another...

Divisive? Divisive???

Let Kurt be Kurt!

New local bloggers

I've got a lot of catching up to do on various blog chores, such as updating my blogroll. Carl Tate, who (like me) served a brief stint as Secretary of the Staunton Republican Committee a couple years ago, has launched a new blog, The Virginia Hall of Justice. Carl is a very bright guy who works in for the Federal government in Washington (like I used to), but he spends a lot of his time here at home in Staunton.

Further to the north (and a bit toward the left), Megan Rhodes, a.k.a. "Whackette," recently ceased blogging for the Daily Whack Job, to my dismay, but she has now started a new solo blog: Sun Versus Wind. Hooray!

Finally, a guy in this area who is heavy into quantitative analysis has launched Blue Ridge Data. Ideologically, he is "located slightly left of center."

May 1, 2008 [LINK / comment]

"Worst decision" by the Fed?

I was very dubious of the buyout of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan, made possible by emergency financial support from the Federal Reserve, but a former senior policy adviser made an exceptionally harsh criticism of the March 14 move. Vincent Reinhart, who advised Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as well as his predecessor Alan Greenspan, called that rescue operation the "worst policy decision in a generation." Gone is the pretense that the Fed serves as an "honest broker" in preserving monetary stability. What's worse is that the Fed plans to start making loans to investment banks, going outside its traditional domain of depository institutions. Getting involved in such a high-risk sector sets a very bad precedent for the future. See Washington Post.

We need to remember the close connection between market economics and individual freedom, and that capitalism fosters liberty only as long as the government is restrained from playing favorites. Once it starts intervening for the sake of stability, there is a slippery slope and it gets hard to avoid getting ever-more deeply entangled in business affairs. The "moral hazard" that arises whenever the Fed makes emergency loans -- insulating firms and individuals from the consequences of their bad decisions -- has been forgotten by most people. Once voters get used to the idea that politicians can be induced to help them out in time of "need," then we have turned away from our (small r) republican roots and embraced the comforting allure of despotism. "Crony capitalism" or "compassionate conservatism" -- whichever way you look at it, the whole thing stinks like rotten eggs.

April 30, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Obama disowns "Rev. Wrong"

Well, it was bound to happen eventually. Nearly six weeks after saying he could "no more disown [Rev. Jeremiah Wright] than I can disown the black community," Barack Obama did just that yesterday. Based on what the "Rev. Wrong" said at the National Press Club in Washington on Monday, Obama really didn't have much choice if he intends to be the Democrats' nominee. What is so shocking about the latest news is that Rev. Wright hurled a verbal counterattack at Sen. Obama. (See Washington Post.) Both men have now disowned each other, in effect. (So does this mean Obama has in fact disowned the black community?)

On the "Today" show, NBC's Tim Russert called this a "public divorce," almost unparalleled in modern American history. It would be interesting to find out when the last time a leading presidential candidate parted ways so dramatically from one of his closest associates.

Obama's viability in the fall campaign depends greatly on how he is perceived by the opinion-making elite. It's no surprise that Obama-booster Andrew Sullivan, who considers himself a conservative, is straining to defend the Illinois senator, who already missed his chance to make this flap into a "Sister Souljah" moment, distancing himself from hate speech. To his (partial) credit, Sullivan at least used the opportunity to reject the "government created AIDS" conspiracy talk by many Blacks. James Patterico notes that Sullivan took much too long to face up to Obama's big failure; link via InstaPundit.

It's hard for me to understand why anyone would waste their breath trying to defend Rev. Wright. People on the Left who complain that he has been unfairly targeted by the media, or that Obama has been unfairly associated with the Rev. Wright completely miss the point. The guy is just hogging the attention and making the most of his 15 minutes of fame. He's a classic demagogue who hides behind a pulpit to spout his vile words, making those sitting in the pews feel justified in sharing such hostile feelings. Either you take a stand against hate speech, from whatever the source, or you sit back and let the forces of evil win another round.

What this episode illustrates is the uncomfortable fact about the coalition that makes up the Democrats' voter base: A large number of them just plain hate America in general, and resent successful people in particular. [In this kind of situation,] the art of politics consists of retaining the support of such people while keeping them hidden away from view of the general public. Every once in a while, such efforts fail, and the ugly attitudes shine through.

Democrats are not unique in that regard, however. Indeed, the Republicans have a problem in appeasing their "Base," those energetic folks who respond to emotional and symbolic appeals. They're the kind of people who thought former Sen. George Allen's "macaca" crack [in August 2006] was funny. It is the responsibility of true political leaders to keep such people at bay, and chastising them when necessary.

From a partisan perspective, I am glad whenever the other side stumbles and raises our side's chances for victory. But in this case, I feel no joy in seeing the Obama candidacy taken down a notch or two. Why? Because racism continues to be a huge problem in this country, and anything that needlessly antagonizes the opposing sides makes it harder to lessen the divisions that plague us. Racism today is a more complex, nuanced, insidious beast than it was in the 1960s Civil Rights era, and as Rev. Wright reminds us, Black racism has become just as big a part of the problem [as] White racism. Most people would admit that privately, but would never say so publically. As long as public discourse over such matters is kept in the straightjacket of Political Correctness, we will never make much progress in righting all those Wrongs.

April 24, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Housing vacancies in Manassas

The collateral effects of the crackdown on illegal immigration in the Prince William County area are becoming apparent, and it's starting to look like the movie A Day without a Mexican (see imdb.com). Monday's Washington Post profiled two activists in Manassas, Chris Pannell and Allison Kipp, who are satisfied that their efforts are starting to pay off. Whereas their neighborhood was becoming extremely overcrowded before, with many illegal immigrants who often exhibited behavioral issues, it has now reverted to relative tranquility, with many vacant houses. Real estate brokers must be gnashing their teeth at the lost business... Greg Letief (BLACK VELVET BRUCE LI) hails this as evidence that the "Rule of Law Resolution" passed by the Prince William County Board of Supervisors is working.

I see this outcome with mixed emotions, however: I'm glad to see that law and order are being upheld, but a bit sad for the hard-working folks who are getting squeezed out. But let's not kid ourselves, folks: This mini-exodus had to happen sooner or later, and if it had been postponed much more, the confrontation might have turned violent.

April 23, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Hillary stays in the race

Hillary Clinton needed a convincing win in the Pennsylvania primary in order to keep her campaign alive, and that's just what she got: 55% to 45% for Barack Obama. In the Washington Post, Dana Milbank ridiculed the notion of a "point spread" (determined by the media) that Hillary needed to surpass in order to secure a meaningful win. He says the Democratic primary marathon is like the movie Groundhog Day, where every day is the same thing over and over again; he is clearly exhausted by the primary race.

Rush Limbaugh is taking credit for "Operation Chaos," encouraging Republicans to vote for the weaker candidate in the Democratic primaries, but that's just tongue in cheek. (I think.) As Sean Hannity pointed out, Democrats who urge Hillary to give up a hopeless struggle are reflecting the same defeatist mindset that many express with respect to the war in Iraq.

For me, it is gratifying that Obama's 3-to-1 advantage in campaign spending made little if any difference. That is the best antidote to "excessive" campaign spending. Sooner or later, potential donors will realize that they're wasting their money, drying up the source for all the televised negative ads. The "miracle of the marketplace."

Obama on small town "bitterness"

For someone whose reputation rests upon his eloquence and charisma, Barack Obama sure is putting his foot in his mouth a lot lately. His offhand remark that Americans who live in small towns often channel their bitter feelings by blaming foreigners for lost jobs, etc. says a lot about his contemptuous elitist attitudes. See Washington Post.

Having grown up in a small town, unlike Sen. Obama, I know what life is like in such a setting. Obviously, some small towns are nicer than others, but there is a clear difference in terms of the feeling of angst and desperation one encounters in big cities and suburbs. Most people who live in smaller cities and towns actually know and care about their neighbors, and they don't worry much about material status. That's why they are less prone to demand favors from the government.

The more I think about it, however, Obama may be on to something with his remark about "bitterness"... For example, some of the folks in SWAC Land are more than a bit perturbed by the results of the recent Augusta County GOP mass meeting, as though it signified the end of the world as we know it, and someone even called Sen. Emmett Hanger "evil." Such venomous attitudes must reflect some kind of psychological problem. How can anyone take seriously the idea of reconciliation with people who hold such bitter grudges??

April 19, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Kurt Michael says he'll "resign" (?)

Even though he was refused access to the Augusta County Government Center because his status as party leader is in grave doubt, Kurt Michael went ahead with his meeting to certify the selection of delegates on the front steps of the building on Friday evening. He then made the surprise announcement that he would step down as chairman of the Augusta County Republican Committee after the state party convention ends on May 31. He said he was doing so in the interests of party unity, which is certainly a nice (if belated) gesture.

However, that begs the question of whether he will in fact be declared chairman by higher party officials. He certainly knows that the matter is under review by the Sixth District Republican Chairman and by the Republican Party of Virginia, and no party official has thus far said anything about recognizing him as chairman. So, it seems that he is jumping the gun just a little bit. When asked about the confusion over who is party leader by the News Leader reporter, he said, "There is no confusion about who is the chair of Augusta County." Apparently, he thinks his opinion on this question counts more than the opinion of the party leaders in Richmond. He also said in reply to another question that it is "not my responsibility" to reach out to Dr. Larry Roller, the candidate who won the most votes (141-103). So while Kurt took a big step in the right direction, he still fell a bit short in the grace department.

The comment by Larry Roller cited in that article that Kurt tried to "sabotage" the mass meeting made me think about something I observed that evening. While the votes were being cast, I heard Lynn Mitchell telling others to make sure that the attendees on their side did not leave after casting their votes, in case there was a tie and a second ballot was necessary. A tied result seemed very unlikely to me. But if indeed they were planning all along to take control of the proceedings after the vote totals were announced, it would make perfect sense that they would keep all their folks in the room.

As far as who is chairman now the ACRC right now, Kurt cited the RPV roster, referring to the Web site. (Hey, let's look it up on Wikipedia! ) I found it interesting that Kurt brought up the name of Charlie Judd but did not mention the Republican Sixth District, which is the logical next step in handling disputes. Previously, he and his allies had relied upon the GOP Sixth District to back up their positions whenever local controversies arose. In the interview, he said he planned to issue a call for an ACRC meeting to elect a new chairman (or chairwoman!), even though his claim to be party leader is strongly disputed. That is not very likely to win the confidence of folks on the other side, casting doubt on his gesture of reconciliation. Any such call ought to be jointly agreed to by both sides. Kurt's claim that "this whole process" (meaning the intra-party conflict) started during the 2007 primary campaign when he supported Scott Sayre over Emmett Hanger is totally false, and he knows it. In fact, the first open hostilities began at the Sixth District GOP meeting in Lexington in March 2006. (I should know, Kurt and I were two of the protagonists.)

What Kurt Michael may be planning next is anyone's guess. He doesn't seem chastened at all by the fiasco, so I expect him to remain deeply involved in one way or another. The more I think about it, the more this situation reminds me of Sen. Larry Craig, who promised his colleagues that he would resign, but has never gotten around to it.

Newt on the wayward GOP

Newt Gingrich was interviewed by GQ Magazine (hat tip to Zen at Daily Whack Job), and had some typically pithy remarks about what is wrong with the Republican Party today:

Okay, back to the past. What happened to your party over the last eight years?

They went off the rails. That's it. They took a majority that took 16 years to build and they destroyed it.

How?

There was a fundamental misunderstanding about how to govern. The concept of red versus blue is a tactic, not a strategy. In the long run, in order to mobilize your base, you tend to become more intense and your positions become more vitriolic, and you drive away the independents. Then you are no longer a majority.

What does the party have to do to come back?

We have to remember that we are the party of reform. The Democrats should defend the bureaucracy because it's theirs. Republicans want the bureaucracy changed, not defended. Nothing we have seen on the border, nothing we have seen after Katrina, leads people to believe that this government can do anything effectively. People profoundly distrust this government. Republicans should remember that.

Exactamundo. Thank you, Mr. Gingrich. (Actually, he's a doctor, but you never hear him referred to that way.)

April 11, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Dr. Roller wins in a landslide (?)

Thursday night's Augusta County Republican mass meeting was a real circus, from start to finish. (Actually, the adjournment itself was disputed, and for all I know the losing side may still be in there, doing who knows what.) It was quite a contrast to the dignified way that the Staunton Republican mass meeting unfolded on March 29.

I could tell from the beginning that there would be trouble. Unlike the Staunton GOP mass meeting, which was chaired by a more-or-less neutral outside person (Andy Ashby of Bath County), Kurt Chairman tried mightily to retain control over the proceedings. He lost his bid to Jim Bailey, a Republican who used to serve on the Augusta County Board of Supervisors (BOS). Bailey got off to a difficult start as Kurt and others on his side raised several objections, and I grew quite uncomfortable as they whooped and hollered. Well, he sure does "energize the base."

The big dispute came when it was moved to revert to the Party Plan and bylaws rather than the rules that had been approved at the prior Augusta County GOP Committee meeting. (It wasn't until later in the evening that I learned what that fuss was all about. Phil Lynch, a.k.a. "Yankee Philip" told me (if I understand correctly) that his side wanted to have each magisterial district vote separately, weighted in proportion to the number of registered voters. Instead, it was a one-person-one-vote setup, countywide, regardless of district. Phil seemed to think that it mattered that the chairs of five of the seven districts were pro-Sayre people, as if the members of those districts were going to take orders from their respective district chairs. That's not a very democratic way of looking at it, but I guess democracy is not necessarily the highest virtue for some Republicans.) It took forever to get all the procedural issues resolved. The Rules Committee had to retire from the chambers for a second time to get certain things straight. At about 9:32 P.M. Lynn Mitchell, who was standing a few feet away from me, made a call on her cell phone: "Dan? ... They're voting us out of office. ..."

Next came time for the candidates to speak. As expected, four of the declared candidates withdrew and threw their support for Dr. Larry Roller, a retired college professor and long-time Republican Party activist. First, Steve Kijak, then David Beyeler, then Sharon Hanger, and then Vickie Parkinson. Then Dr. Roller used their allotted time, speaking for over 20 minutes about the friendly way things used to be, and about how pleased he and others were when the "young bloods" such as Kurt Michael joined the party a few years ago. Then things turned sour about two years ago, when Lynn and Kurt started manipulating meetings, reducing the frequency from monthly to quarterly (I remember that episode, and the dubious explanation for it), and withholding information from other party members. Clearly, something was gravely amiss. Dr. Roller stressed that he only wanted to serve the party and bring it together, echoing the main theme of my speech on March 29. He was a true class act.

Dr. Larry Roller, the winner by a landslide. In the background is Chris Green, who was nominated by Jim Bailey to serve as Temporary Secretary.

Then Dr. Kurt Michael spoke, and it was the Main Event of the evening. Step right up, ladies and gentlemen! Kurt left the podium, and walked up and down the center aisle in the middle of the audience, almost reminding me of the Jerry Springer show. He told people about his strong support of the Marriage Amendment, Weekday Religious Education, etc. He too talked about the need to unify the party, but he did not respond to the complaints about his tenure that Dr. Roller had raised. Mr. Bailey said that Kurt could have as much time as Dr. Roller had had, but Kurt finished his speech within 5-7 minutes or so.

Dr. Kurt Michael, the second-place winner. In the background are two members of the Augusta County Board of Supervisors: David Beyeler and (in striped shirt) Larry Howdyshell.

Next came the balloting procedure, which took a long time to get straight. Finally, they called out the names, and one by one the participants walked forward to drop their ballots in the box. While the votes were being counted, Congressman Bob Goodlatte talked for a few minutes about the need to stay united, emphasizing that "we are all Republicans in here." Delegate Ben Cline spoke a few words as well.

Some time around 10:00 the vote counters returned to the room, and the results were announced. All along I had been expecting a tight race, but in the end, it wasn't even close: Larry Roller 141, Kurt Michael 103. With 58% of the vote, it might not be considered a landslide, but it was still pretty decisive.

What happened next will be argued about for years to come. Right after Dr. Roller was declared the victor, Tom Nelson, one of the tellers who counted the votes, registered his objection to the propriety of the election. As grumbles grew louder, Jim Bailey declared that the mass meeting was adjourned sine die (that means without setting a future date, for you folks in Rio Linda). Kurt Michael then loudly objected, and as people started filing out of the room, he declared unilaterally that he was taking over the meeting. (Now there's a take-charge kinda guy!)

On strictly procedural grounds, I would agree that the meeting was not properly adjourned. After all, the very same thing happened in the Staunton Republican meeting last May (scroll down), when amidst an uproar, Chairwoman Anne Taetzsch declared adjournment without taking a vote.* But as I wrote last June with respect to the ugly aftermath of the Hanger-Sayre race, "There are proper ways of handling disputed elections, and creating a public scandal is not one of them." Well, folks, we've got one doozy of a scandal now!

* I pointed out this obvious parallel to Mr. Michael, Ms. Mitchell, and Ms. Taetzsch, but none of them acknowledged the similarity. Lynn said, "You mean the meeting without a quorum?" and walked away. She should know better than that: Our records clearly indicate that we had a quorum at the March and May meetings last year, and on the latter occasion I declared that to be the case to a packed room when I was serving as secretary sitting next to Ms. Taetzsch. No one said otherwise, because it would have been a ridiculous claim to make.

On the equally-important substantive grounds, however, it became crystal clear which of the two candidates would really live up to the widely-agreed-upon goal of unifying the party: Dr. Roller. He is a decent and capable man, and I heartily congratulate him for having the guts to stand up in defense of the Party of Lincoln and Reagan.

As more and more people left the room in confusion, I told Congressman Goodlatte that the elected officials should huddle and exert their influence to resolve matters in a mutually-agreeable way, but he didn't want to get involved. I guess I can't blame him.

At 10:30 or so Kurt Michael walked up to David Beyeler and, in his inimitable sneer, called the Augusta County Supervisor "a clown." I took exception to that remark as being inconsistent with the goal of party unity. Mrs. Beyeler was sitting right there, and I can imagine how mortified she must have felt. (It was a pleasure to meet her for the first time, even if it was in trying circumstances.)

After that, I went over to talk to Scott Sayre to see what we could do to reunify the party in the wake of this fiasco. Then I asked Tom Nelson, one of the tellers who counted the votes, what the basis of his objection to the validity of the election was. All he said was that he wanted the objection to be on the record, but he could not give me any specific reason.

While the rump session was proceeding to hold a second election, I chatted with a number of folks outside, including some I hadn't talked to in over a year, and it was clear that even folks whom I considered to be on "the other side" of the GOP were dismayed at what was taking place. They could all see, at long last, what terrible damage he was wreaking to party unity. There is no way on God's green earth that any reasonable person could consider a second vote without broad consent to be valid, so I assume they were just going through the motions in preparation for filing a grievance later on. Some time around 11:00 I went home.

Going out with class (war)?

I don't mean to brag (OK, I do), but I think it is worthwhile and instructive to point out the clear difference in the way that the losing candidate from the recent Staunton GOP mass meeting (moi) handled defeat to the way the losing candidate from the Augusta County GOP mass meeting did. If our side had really wanted to make a stink about it, we could have raised all sorts of procedural objections. In our view, the damage that would have done to the party's image far outweighed any benefit we might have gained. But for some people, ego gratification is everything, and damn the consequences to other people or to the public interest. We all knew that Kurt would go out kicking and screaming like a moonbat, and that's just what happened. "We wuz robbed!" As far as losers go, Kurt Michael makes Al Gore look like Wendell Willkie.

Some party! Some unity!

Now you might think that a 141-103 margin is a decisive outcome, but you wouldn't be a die-hard "SWAC Job." As John Belushi said in Animal House, "Was it over after the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? NO! It's not over!" (Or something like that.) And so, this result will make Republicans look even sillier than before, and the dispute will no doubt be taken up at the Sixth District Republican Convention early next month.

The way the meeting transpired is deeply regrettable, but it's not the end of the world. A quote from Winston Churchill is perhaps appropriate:

Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.

NOTE: This account of the evening's events is truthful and as complete as I can make it for now. It is only a "first draft" of history. After I have time to go over the audio and video recordings I made of the mass meeting, I may make a few clarifications or corrections to the sequence of events. I expect to post a YouTube video by Friday evening, possibly with a separate audio clip or two.

April 10, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Augusta County GOP: Decision 2008

This evening's Augusta County Republican mass meeting promises to be very interesting. (See today's News Leader.) Five people have filed to challenge incumbent chairman, Kurt Michael: Sharon Hanger, David Beyeler, Larry Roller, Steve Kijak, and Vickie Parkinson. My understanding is that Dr. Roller will emerge as the sole alternative to Dr. Michael and the status quo of bitter acrimony within the party that he has brought about over the past two years.

The transcendental question in all this is:

Is Kurt Michael divisive?

SWAC Girl says no, and in a letter to the editor SWAC Husband heartily concurs.

So does the Daily Whack Job, though from a slightly different perspective. Well, one off-the-wall parody begets another one. What's my answer to that question of whether Kurt Michael is divisive?

Is the Pope Catholic?

Do bears (defecate) in the woods?

Are puppy dogs cute?

I think what Barry Goldwater said in his 1964 presidential nomination acceptance speech in San Francisco sums it up pretty well:

Fellow Republicans, it is the cause of Republicanism to resist concentrations of power, private or public, which enforce such conformity and inflict such despotism.

April 7, 2008 [LINK / comment]

Clinton campaign aide quits

Mark Penn, the lead strategist and pollster for Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign, resigned after it was learned last week that he met with Colombia's ambassador to the United States. Sen. Clinton is against the proposed free trade agreement with Colombia, putting him in an awkward position because his lobbying / PR firm Burson-Marsteller was retained by the Colombian government last year, for the express purpose of promoting U.S.-Colombian free trade! The Washington Post reports that he had created friction within the Clinton camp because of his personality, but it's really a question of fundamental policy choices. With his rhetorical and semantic wizardry, Bill Clinton could always manage to pander to his party's base without doing too much damage to U.S. national interests, but Hillary just doesn't have the same knack for double-speak as he does. People loved Bill even though they knew he was lying to their face, because he was so good at it, but Hillary doesn't enjoy that degree of rapport with Democratic voters. And so, without a clear vision of where she wants to take America, her campaign organization steadily crumbles...

"Punished with a baby"??

On Laura Ingraham's radio show this morning, I heard a voice that sounded like Barack Obama saying that he wouldn't want his daughters to be "punished with a baby" if they were to make the mistake of getting pregnant out of wedlock. I could hardly believe it, but it's true. See Washington Times, via Prairie Pundit. The idea that a having baby is something bad or to be avoided -- What an awful thing to say, and to think!

April 6, 2008 [LINK / comment]

R.I.P. David Newsom

David Newsom, former undersecretary of state for political affairs in the Carter administration, died at the University of Virginia hospital on March 30. He was 90 years old. As the Washington Post obituary reported, he played a key role during the Iran hostage crisis, and in the Mariel boatlift from Cuba, both of which happened in 1980. That was an extremely difficult moment in U.S. diplomatic history, as the Soviet Red Army was occupying Afghanistan and America's global prestige plummeted. It must have been very stressful to serve in a high diplomatic position at that time. Newsom earned a reputation for being a very skillful problem solver. After retiring in 1981, he became director of Georgetown University's diplomatic studies program. In the 1990s he served for several years as the "ambassador in residence" in U.Va.'s Department of Government and Foreign Affairs.

I only talked to him a few times while I was in graduate school at U.Va., but I remember very well his advice to those of us who were preparing to take the Foreign Service oral exam: The State Department wants "no bullies and no wimps."

Superdelegate watch

As Hillary Clinton battles on against Barack Obama in spite of ever-increasing odds, the pressure builds on the elected officials and other Democratic honchos who will pick their party's nominee this summer. The new Uncommitted Superdelegates blog is a great way to monitor the situation on the Democratic side. Hat tip to X Curmudgeon.

Child labor humor?

The best satire is that which is almost believable. The idea that The Gap would sell a line of clothing made "For Kids By Kids" is not beyond the realm of possibility. Watch the video news clip from Onion News Network; hat tip to Stacey Morris.

April 1, 2008 [LINK / comment]

And now, a message from the "grassroots"...

 

! WIN THE WAR  
Victory in Iraq

(but don't raise my taxes to pay for it!)

Have a "patriotic" April Fool's Day, everyone!

Well, sometimes it takes satirical humor to make a serious point. In this case, it seems to me that many of those who are gung-ho on the war against Islamic-inspired terrorism are a little weak-kneed when it comes for asking their fellow citizens to shoulder the burden. That, I'm afraid, is one of President Bush's biggest failures. This country's financial system is every bit as important in preserving national security as our armed forces and intelligence services are. Yet the declining value of the U.S. dollar, stemming largely from the growing trade gap, the budget deficit, and the recent mortgage crisis (especially the buyout of Bear Stearns by J.P. Morgan), highlights our nation's growing vulnerability to foreign pressure, making us less secure. On the personal level as well as in the Federal government, getting used to borrowing money for things we should be paying for up front is putting us in a dangerous predicament.

It is clear that the huge financial cost of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan (which I support, in general) is starting to cause "collateral damage" on the home front. Indeed, the days of living the easy life with dangerously high debt ratios may soon be coming to an end. Then we will learn what "tightening our belts" really means: victory gardens, scrap metal recycling drives, and maybe even rationing certain commodities like they did during World War II. "We can do it!"

Whatever one thinks about the strategic wisdom of the war, it should be clear to all that we cannot ultimately prevail over our enemies unless our armed forces are given enough financial, human, and material resources to WIN THE WAR. Putting up patriotic yard signs is a nice gesture, but is grossly inadequate for the enormous magnitude of the struggle that we face. Accordingly, I would suggest that folks who consider themselves to be true patriots consider donating the bulk of their "economic stimulus" handout from Uncle Sam to some charitable cause or causes in support of our troops.

United we stand.

Let us also remember that no party has a monopoly on patriotism, no party has a monopoly on religious faith, and no party has a monopoly on moral virtue. If we really want to "Take the politics out of this war" and unify this country, we on the Republican side had better stop slamming the opposition party in toto, lest we lose some potential (moderate) allies on the other side of the aisle. "Get it?"