Andrew Clem blog home

Blog

In which an older and wiser yet terminally earnest former liberal struggles to come to grips with the cynicism, hatred, and paranoia that plague both sides of the American political spectrum. "Can we all get along?"

Politics montage shadow
Information pages:

NOTE: The above Web pages feature chronologies, maps, and other kinds of political information.



Blog roll (partial)

(Former) Regular reads:
Blogs I should read:
Virginia blogs (active):

 

Other political blogs

Other Virginia blogs
Other national blogs
Other regional blogs
On hiatus, etc.

Political Web sites

Political humor


 

Conservation links



 

News links

Newspapers
Radio and TV
News Web sites

 

And I quote:

"The use of force alone is but temporary. It may subdue for a moment; but it does not remove the necessity of subduing again: and a nation is not governed, which is perpetually to be conquered."

Edmund Burke, 2nd speech on conciliation with America, Mar. 22, 1775 (Bartlett's 16th ed., p. 331)



Mrs. Powel: "Well, Dr. Franklin, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?"

Benjamin Franklin: "A republic, if you can keep it."

After Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, Sept. 18, 1787. (Bartlett's 16th ed.)


"As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed. As long as the connection subsists between his reason and his self-love, his opinions and his passions will have a reciprocal influence on each other, and the former will be objects to which the latter will attach themselves."

James Madison ("Publius"), The Federalist Papers No. 10 (1787)


"Of the three forms of sovereignty [autocracy, aristocracy, and democracy], democracy, in the truest sense of the word, is necessarily a despotism because it establishes an executive power through which all the citizens may make decisions about (and indeed against) the individual without his consent..."

Immanuel Kant, Perpetual Peace: A Philosophical Sketch (1795)


"To act successfully, that is, according to the rules of the political art, is political wisdom. To know with despair that the political act is inevitably evil, and to act nevertheless, is moral courage. To choose among several expedient actions the least evil one is moral judgment. In the combination of political wisdom, moral courage, and moral judgment, man reconciles his political nature with his moral destiny."

Hans Morgenthau, Scientific Man vs. Power Politics (1946), p. 203


"Thus, whenever a concrete threat to peace develops, war is opposed not by a world public opinion but by the public opinions of those nations whose interests are threatened by that war."

Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations 6th ed., rev. by Kenneth Thompson (1985), p. 288


"The texture of international politics remains highly constant, patterns recur, and events repeat themselves endlessly."

Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics (1979), p. 66


"Men wiser and more learned than I have discerned in history a plot, a rhythm, a predetermined pattern. These harmonies are concealed from me. I can see only one emergency following upon another as wave follows upon wave, only one great fact with respect to which, since it is unique, there can be no generalizations, only one safe rule for the historian: that he should recognize in the development of human destinies the play of the contingent and the unforeseen."

H. A. L. Fisher, History of Europe (1935), p. vii [Oxford Dictionary of Modern Quotations (1991), p. 80]


"Most of the change we think we see in life is due to truths being in and out of favour."

Robert Frost, 'Black Cottage' North of Boston (1914), [Oxford Dictionary of Modern Quotations (1991), p. 86]


"My thoughts encompass divinity, therefore divinity is. The divinity that my thoughts encompass is associated with the order that arises out of chaos... As we expand our knowledge of this realm, we ... see it in terms of one sublime order that awaits full realization."

Louis J. Halle, Out of Chaos (1977), p. 646


"Here, then, is the complexity, the fascination, and the tragedy of all political life. Politics are made up of two elements -- utopia and reality -- belonging to two different planes which can never meet."

E. H. Carr, The Twenty Years' Crisis, 1919-1939 2nd ed. (1946), p. 93.


"My biggest blunder in life was attempt to seek common ground with Keynesians, based on the naive thought that by putting my ideas in Keynesian language that I would make any dent on the Keynesians."

Milton Friedman, New York Times, July 4, 1999


"War made the state and the state made war."

Charles Tilly, The Formation of National States in Western Europe (1975), p. 42


"Americans like to mock Kuwaitis as rich and pampered and lazy and decadent, which is exactly what the rest of the world says about Americans. Actually, we shouldn't mock Kuwait at all. It represents the hopes and dreams of Americans of all political persuasions. For liberals, it's a generous welfare state with guaranteed employment and a huge government bureaucracy. For conservatives, it's a country with no taxes and plenty of cheap maids who aren't allowed to vote."

Peter Carlson, "Castles in the Sand," Washington Post Magazine Jan. 14, 1996, p. 32-33


"[Bill Clinton's] greatest strength is his insincerity... I've decided Bill Clinton is at his most genuine when he's the most phony... We know he doesn't mean what he says."

Newsweek reporter Howard Fineman, in a speech in Indiana quoted by Howard Kurtz, Washington Post Apr. 27, 1996


"Whatever one thinks of Bill Clinton, his opponents [*] must be thwarted. They are enemies of democracy and of the Constitution that insures its possibility. We long ago lost the luxury of choosing our allies. This is war."
* (referred to elsewhere in this piece as "mad dogs bent on political annihilation")

Eric Alterman, "Democracy Disappears" The Nation, Jan. 11-18, 1998


"There are no enemies in science, professor. Only phenomena to study."

From the movie The Thing, 1951 (a Cold War sci-fi allegory)


Julia Roberts: "Can you prove any of this?"

Mel Gibson: "No... A good conspiracy is unprovable. If you can prove it, someone must have screwed up somewhere along the way."

From the movie Conspiracy Theory


THE 16 WORDS: "The British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa."

Pres. George W. Bush, State of the Union address, Jan. 2003


 

December 31, 2018 [LINK / comment]

Election 2018:
Will the "blue wave" bring the balance back?

Well, this awful year is just about over with, so I figured I ought to at least record a few thoughts about recent developments in the wonderful world of politics. (See note at bottom.) So we had a big election last month, and the American people made their (hopelessly divided) collective voice heard! As expected, the Democrats picked up enough seats to retake control of the House of Representatives, but the Republicans held on to the Senate, and actually picked up a couple seats there. The widely-heralded "blue tsunami" in favor of the Democratic Party fell short of what anti-Trump people were hoping for. Midterm elections typically go against the party of the incumbent president, and as such reversals go, this one was pretty mild.

Nevertheless, the Democrats did regain a majority in the House for the first time since 2010 (with a 233-200 margin), and in three more days, Nancy Pelosi will become speaker of the House once again. (She previously served in the last two years of the Bush Jr. administration, and the first two years of the Obama administration.) It was amusing to see the Democrats bicker over who should lead them during the next two years, as the division between the mainstream and "progressive" wings of the party is nearly as great as is the corresponding division on the Republican side. Pelosi will turn 79 on March 26, and it's not very often that someone continues such a leadership role in Congress into their eighties -- much less a woman!

The fight among Democrats was in part a reflection of the fact that they lack any semblance of a coherent policy agenda, and there is zero consensus on which way the party should head in the years to come. (Of course, the same thing could be said of Republicans.) What unites Democrats is not so much a commitment to a particular course of policy action but rather a fervent attachment to the politics of "identity," drawing attention to all sorts of perceived injustices that hardly anyone even dreamed about ten or twenty years ago.

On the Senate side, Mitch McConnell is straining to maintain a semblance of order in the face of a continued onslaught of disruption brought about by the White House. As the archetypal insider "establishment" figure, he symbolizes the "Swamp" upon which Trump supporters routinely heap their scorn. As a central figure in the Senate Republicans' decision to block the confirmation process for President Obama's Supreme Court justice Merrick Garland in 2016, he his hated with a passion by many Democrats. I have no strong opinion on him either way; he usually gets the job done, and that's what's most important. With a 53-47 majority in the Senate (up from 51-49 before), he won't have quite as much trouble getting bills and procedural motions passed as before.

It is fitting to pay (ironic) respect to outgoing Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. Eight years ago he was the up-and-coming face of a dynamic policy-focused leadership in the Republican Party. Six years ago, he was candidate for vice president on the ticket with Mitt Romney. Three years ago he replaced John Boehner as House speaker after a rebellion by the GOP Tea Party faction -- the precursor to the Trumpista movement. And then two years ago, he turned into the symbol of the hopelessly ineffectual mainstream Republican leaders who were blindsided by the Trump movement. From one day to the next, he wasn't sure whether to resist Trump or try to work with him, and in the end he was consumed. I had such high hopes for him at one time, so I try to be a little more charitable than the many analysts who bitterly deride him for appeasing Trump.

So did President Trump drag Republicans down to defeat? In some cases yes, but for the most part, the Trump Effect was relatively muted. His unpopularity among suburban Washington establishment types no doubt led to the defeat of incumbent Republican Barbara Comstock, but that is merely a manifestation of the long-term trend toward intensified polarization in the American body politic. The largely white, rural, southern and midwestern America of yesteryear feels besieged by the multi-ethnic, urban, Atlantic/Pacific America of the (apparent) future. As well it should. But that theme of this year's election campaign will have to be explored at some other time...

Virginia turns solid blue

Virginia was among the notable exceptions to the general trend of a mild shift toward the Democrats. Here in the Old Dominion, it was a veritable Blue Tsunami. The Democrats "flipped" three of the state's eleven House districts in their favor: in the 2nd District, Elain Luria beat incumbent Scott Taylor 51-49%, in the 7th District, Abigail Spanberger beat incumbent Dave Brat 50-48%, and in the 10th District, Jennifer Wexton beat incumbent Barbara Comstock by a stunning 56-44% margin. These results may reflect the court-ordered redistricting, and indeed the aggregate statewide voting percentages did not swing nearly as sharply as the number of House seats (7 R, 4 D before; 4 R, 7 D now) would indicate. But when you consider that both U.S. Senate seats are firmly under Democratic control (Tim Kaine easily beat back a challenge by Corey Stewart), and all three executive offices in Richmond are in Democratic hands, the magnitude of the reversal in political fortunes since 2012 or so is almost incomprehensible.

Virginia Congress 2018 Map

Roll your mouse over the map to compare to the 2016 election; click on it to restore the 2018 map.

District Republican % Democrat %
1 Wittman * 55.18% Williams 44.70%
2 Taylor * 48.83% FLIP -->     Luria 51.03%
3 (write in) 8.78% Scott * 91.22%
4 McAdams 36.06% McEachin * 62.46%
5 Riggleman 53.18% Cockburn 46.64%
6 Cline 59.89% Lewis 40.00%
7 Brat * 48.43% FLIP -->     Spanberger 50.32%
8 Oh 23.61% Beyer * 76.17%
9 Griffith * 65.17% Flaccavento 34.75%
10 Comstock * 43.74% FLIP -->     Wexton 56.09%
11 Dove 26.94% Connolly * 71.10%

SOURCE: virginia.gov
Asterisk ( * ): incumbent; Winning candidates are highlighted with an orange background.

The Politics in Virginia page has been updated to show the new and returning members of the House from Virginia as of next January.

Democrats surge in Virginia

In the November 2017 elections in Virginia, Democrats made a spectacular gain, going from a near-hopeless 2-1 disadvantage (66-34) to virtual parity (51-49). Hardly anyone expected such a huge swing in the balance of party power. The Republicans retained a 21-19 majority in the Senate. In the governor's race, which was expected to be close, Ralpha Northam easily beat Ed Gillespie, by a 53.90% to 44.97% margin. In the race for Lieutenant Governor, Democrat Justin E. Fairfax beat Republican Jill H. Vogel by 52.72% to 47.18%, while incumbent Attorney General Mark Herring (Democrat) beat challenger John D. Adams (Republican) 53.34% to 46.56%; (see virginia.gov). Gillespie had been weakened by a stiff challenge from Corey Stewart, a big Trump supporter who recently announced he will leave the statewide political scene.

Beginning in January 2018, Kirk Cox replaced the retiring William Howell as Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Political info page updates

All of the political information pages have been updated:

R.I.P. George H. W. Bush (1926-2018)

George H. W. Bush

President George H. W. Bush
(Photo from the National Archives.)

President George Herbert Walker Bush passed away on November 30, a little over seven months after his wife Barbara died. It was not unexpected, as Bush had a health emergency during the early summer, and at age 92 he had already led a very full life. The funeral and related memorial observances were a touching reminder that, not long ago, this country was united by certain basic norms and customs. The awkward presence of President Trump at the funeral in Washington National Cathedral served to punctuate just how badly frayed our body politic has become.

The elder President Bush (#41, in slang parlance) was born into wealth and privilege but answered the call of duty in World War II, becoming a Navy pilot who was shot down after flying many combat missions. After the war, he chose to seek his own fortune in the oil business, taking his wife Barbara to raise a family on the hot plains of Texas. He had mixed success in business, but struck it rich in politics, where he battled his way into the U.S. House of Representatives, refusing to be discouraged by an early defeat. Impressing people in the Nixon administration, he was appointed U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and as Director of Central Intelligence. He ran for president in 1980, representing the moderate faction of the party, and after he was defeated by Ronald Reagan in the primary campaign, he accepted the #2 position as vice presidential candidate. He didn't seem to have a great deal of influence in the Reagan administration, but he was rewarded by "inheriting" the presidential nomination in 1988, handily beating Democratic Mike Dukakis.

As president, Bush assembled one of the finest group of cabinet officials and advisors that this country has ever had: James Baker as Secretary of State, Dick Cheney as Secretary of Defense, Colin Powell as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Brent Scowcroft as National Security Advisor. (I had a great deal of admiration for Cheney back then, and I often wonder if he became more harsh and conniving as a result of the 9/11 attacks.) That team was the subject of Bob Woodward's book The Commanders, which focused on the decision-making by the first Bush administration following the seizure of Kuwait by Iraq in the summer of 1990, leading up to the triumphant military liberation campaign known as Desert Storm in January and February of 1991. But for all his strategic acumen, Bush lacked political savvy, and turned a blind eye to the emerging economic problems in 1992. His challenger in that year's election campaign, Bill Clinton, capitalized on Bush's Achilles heel with the simplistic but effective slogan, "It's the economy, stupid." And that's how Bush went into early retirement.

As president, Bush was the subject of bitter Democratic scorn, notwithstanding his repeated efforts to meet the opposition half way. He was responsible for landmark policy initiatives such as the Clean Air Act and reform of the financial sector, but every time he paid a heavy price. The widespread cynical response by many Democrats to his uplifting exhortation about "1000 points of light" was just plain awful. I bet they regret that now. It may not be too far off base to suggest that the origins of the fury toward Democrats exhibited by many contemporary Republicans was the unfair way that Bush Senior was treated. It was while he was president that I began shifting from the Democratic side to the Republican side, and to this day I regret not voting for him at least once.

The last former president to pass away was Gerald Ford, on December 26, 2006. (See my tribute December 27, 2006. I updated my Presidency page accordingly.

George H. W. Bush was the only president (or president-to-be) whom I ever saw clearly with my own eyes. I may have caught a distant glimpse of Ronald Reagan at his second inaugural (January 20, 1985), but I definitely saw his second-in-command, George Bush, during a parade in honor of the hostages freed from Iran, along Pennsylvania Avenue a few days after the 1981 inauguration. Bush was standing on the steps on the side of one of the buses carrying the freed hostages, waving in a gleeful way that struck me as just a little awkward given the circumstances.

As a final note, Bush the Elder may represent the last of a dying breed: the male White Anglo-Saxon Protestant (Episcopalian!) Eastern Establishment Republicans who used to run this country. Most Republicans today look down upon the privileged elites, and in return, most elites regard Republicans with deep disdain or even contempt. It is another manifestation of the ongoing flip-flop in party identity, as the populist strain in the conservative movement seeks to recruit from a demographic segment (e.g., coal miners in Appalachia) that was once solidly in the Democratic camp.

R.I.P. John S. McCain (1936-2018)

In late August it was announced that Senator John McCain was ending treatment for his brain tumor, about a year after his condition was made public. Within a few days came word that he had passed away at the age of 81. As a former war hero (having been captured by the North Vietnamese after his jet fighter was shot down), McCain commanded a degree of respect that few other politicians in Washington enjoy. He was not the smoothest of characters, and his temper got the best of him from time to time, but for the most part was was good-natured and well-liked. On several occasions, he was able to serve as a mediator in the U.S. Senate, such as when the "Gang of 14" forged a compromise in May 2005.

But the very word compromise has come to be regarded as inherently evil by many people these days. Indeed, the fact that McCain has been alternately praised and scorned in the wake of his passing says a lot about the fractured polity in the United States today. McCain was always regarded with suspicion by many in the Republican Party's right wing, and I myself had my doubts about him. His vote not to repeal Obamacare last year was regarded as unforgiveable by many, but without a replacement plan at hand, such a policy move would indeed be risky. He wasn't the ideal presidential candidate in 2008, and the economic circumstances probably doomed his chances in any event, but I was still proud to vote for him. May he rest in peace.

Coincidentally, when Jacqueline and I were in Annapolis last August, we saw a photo of John McCain in a display at the visitor center of the U.S. Naval Academy, where he graduated in 1958. Unbeknownst to me at the time, McCain had decided that his final resting place would be at the U.S. Naval Academy cemetery. Next time we go there, I'll make sure to pay respects at his grave site.

USNA cemetery, Severn River

U.S. Naval Academy cemetery, seen from Severn River. (August 19)


Politics blog hiatus

I was surprised to realize that I haven't blogged on politics since January 28, 2018, almost a year ago. Maybe I'm taking my song "Better Left Unsaid" too seriously! Truth be told, I'm among those who has become deeply discouraged about American politics in the Era of Trump. Is there a place for independent-minded people who try to find points of common purpose in the ongoing political melee? I often wonder. Perhaps in another year things will get better, but for the mean time, I do not count on my opinions carrying much weight.





U.S. Cabinet, current

Department Secretary
State: Mike Pompeo
Treasury: Steven Mnuchin
Defense: James Mattis
Justice: Matthew Whitaker (acting)
Interior: Ryan Zinke
Commerce: Wilbur Ross
Labor: Alexander Acosta
Agriculture: Sonny Perdue
Health & H.S.: Alex Azar
Housing & U.D.: Ben Carson
Transportation: Elaine Chao
Energy: Rick Perry
Education: Betsy DeVos
Veterans Aff.: Robert Wilkie
Homeland Sec.: Kirstjen Nielsen
Other cabinet-level posts:
W.H. Ch./Staff John Kelly *
U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer
Dir. of Nat. Intell. Dan Coats
Amb. to U.N. Nikki Haley (until 2019)
OMB Director Mick Mulvaney
Dir. of CIA Gina Haspel
EPA Admin. Andrew Wheeler (acting)
Small Bus. Adm. Linda McMahon
* = not subject to Senate confirmation.

Last updated: 07 Nov 2018


115th Congress
(2017-2018)

U.S. Senate
(Web site)
Post Republicans Democrats
Pres. Pro TemOrrin Hatch--
Leader Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer
WhipJohn Cornyn Richard Durbin
Seats5246 + 2
Two independents caucus with the Democrats.
U.S. House of Representatives
(Web site)
Post Republicans Democrats
Speaker Paul Ryan
Leader Kevin McCarthy Nancy Pelosi
Whip Steve Scalise Steny Hoyer
Seats240193
The real leaders in each chamber are in bold face.
NOTE: As of Jan. 24, 2017, two House seats are vacant.

Last updated: 29 Jan 2017


Virginia Government

Executive branch
Post Name Party
Governor Ralph Northam Dem
Lt. GovernorJustin FairfaxDem
Attorney GeneralMark HerringDem
Virginia Senate
Post Republicans Democrats
Pres. Pro Tem Stephen Newman --
LeaderThomas NormentRichard Saslaw
Seats2119
Virginia House of Delegates
Post Republicans Democrats
Speaker Kirk Cox --
LeaderTodd GilbertDavid Toscano
Seats5149
The real leaders in each chamber are in bold face.

In the November 2017 elections, the Democrats gained 15 net seats in the House of Delegates (with one tied election being resolved in the Republicans' favor by drawing lots), going from a 66-34 to 51-49. In the November 2015 elections, the Republicans retained a 21-19 majority in the Senate, while the Democrats gained two net seats in the House of Delegates.


Last updated: 16 Jan 2018



 

Books on politics: